By John Richardson HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events: The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis. China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package. Last year’s collapse in oil prices. China’s economic and environmental about turn. We are also told because these were Black Swans – freak events […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian biofuels face a big crisis
After all the optimism, all the hype and a lot of investors’ money, the industry has shot itself in the foot by failing to build demand ahead of supply. Plus the negativity caused by food versus fuel and environmental counter-arguments to supporting this current generation of technologies is making some Asian governments hesitate on providing […]
Watch out for the Black Swans and dump the consultants
The former trader turned professor, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, in his new book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable warns against the danger of forecasting. Forecasting is, obviously, always based on what he know and not what we don’t know. A Black Swan, by the way, is an earth-shattering event we didn’t predict […]
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