By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s “two sessions” in 2021 could easily set the direction of global petchems for decades to come
By John Richardson DO YOU have a dedicated team studying the policy outcomes from this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) which began last Friday and finish on 11 March? (These annual meetings are commonly referred to as the “two sessions”. For reasons described below, […]
Collapsing battery costs point to ever-declining forecasts for oil demand
By John Richardson THE END of the oil age is arriving. Sooner than many people think, demand for oil in transportation will collapse. And as the environmental benefits of switching to electric vehicles become more and more apparent, we will look back and wonder “Why on earth did we use oil?”, just as we already […]
No change in China’s policies seem likely under a Biden and Harris White House
By John Richardson WE NEED to talk about politics without being political – a very difficult task, but an essential one if we are to be dispassionate as humanly possible in our analysis, and thus produce worthwhile analysis. If we are not dispassionate, we end up shouting at each other; and when anyone shouts, nobody […]
Unsustainable boom in China auto market ends as sales of new vehicles move permanently lower
By John Richardson THERE IS a big temptation when making forecasts of becoming too excited about the recent past. Judgements are at risk of being blurred by euphoria, resulting in very bad investment decisions based on the notion that the recent past will reflect the long-term future. Paradigm shifts do occur from time to time. […]
China autos and polypropylene: Growth has peaked and will decline
By John Richardson WHAT if the number of new vehicle sales in China reached a long term peak of 28.9m in 2017? What if the declines in sales that we saw in 2018 continue or that at the very best sales remain flat? “Let’s put this in perspective, though. Just look at how the market […]
Asian Polyolefins Markets Still Indicate Economic Slowdown
By John Richardson ANOTHER week has led to another fall in Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices despite higher naphtha feedstock costs on stronger crude oil. Pricing has been weak since the Lunar New Year Holidays, (15-21 February). Market participants had expected the opposite on a recovery in demand following the holidays and tight […]
Petrochemicals Markets Point To Synchronised Global Downturn
By John Richardson IF you repeat something enough times, such as the “emperor is wearing clothes”, lots of people begin to believe it. So is the case with the widespread idea that we are in the midst of an unshakeable synchronised global economic recovery. The problem with these kind of economic theories is that as […]
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
China Pollution Campaign: 2018 Chemicals Market Opportunities, Challenges
By John Richardson XI JINPING mentioned the environment no less than 89 times during his three-and-a-half hour opening speech during October’s 19th National Party Congress. China’s president did, however, refer to the economy 70 times during that same speech, but his whole emphasis was on the quality rather than quantity of growth. Evidence to support […]