By John Richardson LET’S START with the good news first. ICIS Data and Analytics had expected China’s demand for paraxylene (PX) to grow by in 2018 at 5.6% over 2017, but instead I estimate growth at 9.2%. This was awesome news for the world’s major PX producers as the reason for the strong growth was […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Deep understanding of inland China essential for tracking 2019 slowdown
By John Richardson CHEMICALS companies are at great risk of getting Chinese demand very badly wrong in 2019 if they rely too heavily on flawed government data. This article from the South China Morning Post is another example of the long-standing practice of official data underestimating economic weakness when a downturn is taking place. The […]
Asian Polyolefins Profits To Test 2012 Lows As Global Economy Slows
By John Richardson PETROCHEMICALS are a great barometer for economic growth as they are the raw materials for so many finished goods. So, if petrochemicals producers see their profits slip, this provides an early signal that something is wrong with wider economies. It is not just petchems producers that should therefore take note of the […]
Petrochemicals Markets Point To Synchronised Global Downturn
By John Richardson IF you repeat something enough times, such as the “emperor is wearing clothes”, lots of people begin to believe it. So is the case with the widespread idea that we are in the midst of an unshakeable synchronised global economic recovery. The problem with these kind of economic theories is that as […]
China’s Polyethylene Market: Three New Scenarios For 2018-2025
By John Richardson THE above slide underlines the growing complexity surrounding China’s economy, politics, society, environmental policies and trading relationship with the US. I’ve placed this complexity in the context of the implications for the polyethylene (PE) industry. The above slide, and the full explanation below, updates my three scenarios from last September. These new […]
Three Scenarios For 2018-2025 China Polyethylene Demand Growth
By John Richardson CHINA leads the world in many aspects of renewable energy and has an electric vehicle industry that is receiving the kind of state support that is very probably making foreign competitors green with envy. The explosion of commerce via the mobile internet takes your breath away. Average per person spending on mobile […]
China: “The Dog Ate My Homework” Won’t Do
By John Richardson TWO Chinese plastic processing companies are in financial difficulties because they have used raw-material purchases for speculation, a polyolefins industry source told the blog. “The companies are in trouble because they resold their inventories in order to invest directly in real estate, or indirectly in real estate via the shadow-banking system. This […]
China: Do The Maths On 2014 GDP Growth
By John Richardson DO the maths and you should be able to assess what could happen to China’s GDP growth in 2014: The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences wrote last week in the China Daily: If the PBOC loosens monetary policy to push down borrowing rates, it will have to achieve total social financing – a broad […]
Researching China Credit And Growth
By John Richardson A lot of the focus in polyethylene (PE) markets at the moment is on supply and on what impact this might have on the key China market during 2014. Crunching this data will always remain a crucial part of assessing all petrochemicals markets, but, in China, do we need other tools as […]
The Purified Terephthalic Acid Sweet Spot
By John Richardson WHEN is a recovery a sustainable recovery? This a key question for chemicals companies as they prepare their budgets for 2014. What has happened this year in both polyethylene (PE) and the polyester chain has surprised some people. China’s polyester demand was higher than expected in July and August, leading to a […]