Tag Archives | China economic rebalancing

Eight Steps To Realising This Will Be Worse Than Lehman Bros

By John Richardson

WE are going through a process of realisation at the moment. It is not a linear process   – i.e. not all people will be at the same stage.

Equally, chemicals and other company executives will move backwards …

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Free China Outlook Webinar On Wednesday

By John Richardson

THE blog has spent the last three years focusing heavily on China’s economy. Our analysis, which predicted China’s  about turn, has now gone mainstream.

And now we are running two free webinars on Wednesday (23 April), which …

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What Chinese Q1 GDP Growth Really Tells Us

By John Richardson

ONE of the comments the blog often hears is that even though China’s GDP growth has clearly decelerated, when measured against anywhere else in the world its growth rates are still tremendous.

This argument is deeply flawed …

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China Housing The Biggest Risk

By John Richardson

WHEN the blog made the point during a recent presentation that China is still predominantly a poor country, a chemicals industry executive pointed out that it doesn’t feel that way if you visit the Apple store in …

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China Is “The Fragile One”

By John Richardson

THE “Fragile Five” might, as we discussed on Monday, have become “The Exposed Eight” developing countries threatened by a disorderly Fed tapering.

But what if, in all the focus on the Fed cutting back on quantitative easing, …

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China: The Cost of Shutting Down

By John Richardson

ONCE a petrochemicals plant is built it is pretty hard to shut it down.

This might well apply to Europe, which is why we think talk of widespread cracker and derivatives closures to make way for highly …

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Analyse The Data And Listen To Li Keqiang

By John Richardson

IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism.

Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data.  …

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Two Chinas With No Clear Outcome

By John Richardson

THERE are at least two Chinas out there right now, one where rebalancing seems to be working and another where the impact of economic restructuring looks as if it might upset the whole apple cart.

“I think …

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Cheaper Credit Drives Inventory Building

 

By John Richardson

A DRAMATIC dip in the cost of short-term financing seems to further explain why China’s manufacturers  have ramped-up their inventories of raw materials.

When raw-material prices, including those of petrochemicals, start to rise (see the example …

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China Household Incomes Matter More Than GDP

By John Richardson

THE conventional way of measuring the health of an economy is, of course, to assume that the stronger the growth in GDP the better the outlook.

But in China, rather than viewing charts such as the one …

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