Tag Archives | China economy

China Polyethylene: Increased Local Naphtha Supply Threaten Imports And Margins

By John Richardson

CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) demand grew from around 22m tonnes in 2914 to approximately 25m tonnes in 2016 – an increase of 12.16% based on the exact numbers, according to ICIS Consulting.

Even better news for the global …

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China’s New Normal Propylene And Polymers Markets

By John Richardson

Here is, first of all, some history. Today’s chart is further evidence of the complete turnaround that has taken place in spot propylene and ethylene markets in Northeast Asia (by Northeast Asia this in effect means China …

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Modelling And Responding To China’s Demand Complexity

By John Richardson

PRODUCT by product you need to build alternative scenarios for demand growth in the key China market.

The future might end up being the same as the past up and down all the petrochemicals value chains. But …

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The New World Of Demand, Trade And Competition

By John Richardson

TOMORROW nearly always ended up being better than today for the polymers industry, thanks to the resilience of demand growth during the Economic Supercycle.

What also made life easy was the assumption that global free trade would, …

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China And A Breakdown In Free Trade: Scenarios For Petrochemicals

By John Richardson

MY blog post last Friday, on the threat to the petrochemicals industry of a retreat in global free trade, has gained a great deal of interest. This is good as this is an essential debate.

Today I …

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Brexit, Other Uncertainties Undermine Seasonal Pricing Confidence

By John Richardson

FOR many, many years, seasonality has been a great guide to short term pricing patterns in Asian chemicals and polymer markets.

Take high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade as just one example, which is used to make a …

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Oil Storage, China Credit Threaten Crude-Price Rally

By John Richardson

MANAGE your naphtha and other raw material inventories incredibly carefully over the next few months, as you cannot afford to believe the hype that oil prices have definitively, without doubt, bottomed out.

This has to be the …

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China’s PP Import Decline: Did you See This Coming?

By John Richardson

THE smart people in the polypropylene (PP) business will have already adjusted their strategies in response to evidence, from 2009 onwards, that China was very aggressively expanding its PP capacities.

They would have tracked the rapid rate …

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The End Of The Economic Supercycle: What To Do Next

By John Richardson

THE above infographic explains the end of the economic Supercycle:

•During the 1980s/1990s, the BabyBoomers – the largest and wealthiest generation that the world has ever seen – entered the Wealth Creator generation (those aged 25 – …

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Just Look At China’s Lending Data. It Was Always That Simple

By John Richardson

YOU will be in the airport bookshop in a couple of years’ time, staring at shelf after shelf of books about why everyone should have seen this latest global economic recession/crisis coming.

What everyone will agree on, …

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