Tag Archives | China economy

US Govt Policy, Weaker China Indicate Further Oil Price Decline

By John Richardson

OIL markets have reached an important tipping point as the bulls and the bears try to exert decisive influence.

There is resistance from the bulls which helps to explains why, after last week’s collapse in oil prices, …

Continue Reading

Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene

By John Richardson

DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is …

Continue Reading

Oil Prices Falling Towards $35 On US Supply, China Demand

WTI continues its journey towards a possible $35/bbl by Q4 of this year on rising US shale-oil production and a slight slowdown in the Chinese economy with big implications for global economic growth. And $25/bbl or lower crude in 2018 …

Continue Reading

China PP Market Underlines Return To Global Deflation

By John Richardson

CHINA’S polypropylene (PP) net trade, which is imports minus exports, fell by 31% on a month-on-month basis in April to around 316,000 tonnes. That was to be expected given the 42% surge in net trade in Q1 …

Continue Reading

How China Stands To Win From US Climate Decision

By John Richardson

How might China benefit from its decision to stick with the COP21 climate-change deal as the US withdraws? Here are some thoughts.

Easier to Escape the Middle Income Trap

China is already leading the global charge on …

Continue Reading

Why Oil Prices Could Be At $35/bbl Or Lower By Q4

Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC may regret their decison to cut production, as this has led to a resurgence in US shale-oil production – and a further wave of innovation in shale technologies. Combine this with a slowdown …

Continue Reading

Buoyant, Calm Financial Markets Fail to Reflect Growing Risks

By John Richardson

THE Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index fell to its lowest level since 1993 on 8 May.

But we knew then that the China economy was slowing down – and that very probably, the Trump administration …

Continue Reading

China’s Drive To PX Self-Sufficiency Again Shows Failure Of Conventional Thinking

By John Richardson

BACK in November 2014, when I first suggested that China might move to self-sufficiency in paraxylene (PX), my blog post was met with widespread scepticism.

At that time, China was moving from a major import position in …

Continue Reading

China’s Polyethylene Market Faces Long Destocking Process

China’s polyethylene (PE) imports surged and domestic production saw strong growth in Q1. This occurred as the economy slowed down on reduced availability of credit and the pollution clean-up. Even if global  producers saw this coming, they had no other …

Continue Reading

China’s Polypropylene Market Reflects Wider Economic Problems

By John Richardson

WHEN traders acquired big volumes of polypropylene (PP) cargoes to export to China at the end of last year for arrival in Q1, they were confident that the country’s domestic market would easily absorb just about every …

Continue Reading