Tag Archives | China economy

End Of China’s Latest Credit Bubble: Implications For Chemicals Demand

By John Richardson

THE effect on the global economy of China’s slowdown as it enters its next credit cycle is something I discussed on Friday. We next need to think about the implications for demand growth for all the things …

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China Polyolefins: An Outlook For The Rest Of 2017

By John Richardson

AS THE chart above shows, China is suffering from a bout a polyolefins indigestion right now as a result of a sharp rise in both imports and domestic production. This helps to explain the recent falls in …

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Shift In Lending Patterns Indicate Slower 2017 China Growth

By John Richardson

WE HAVE now seen two months of a very important shift in the pattern of credit growth in China:…

In January, new local-currency bank loans were Rmb2.13 trillion ($310bn).. This was far above December’s Rmb994bn, but there

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Oil Prices Start To Catch Up With Supply And Demand Realities

By John Richardson

I HATE to say “I told you so,”, but I have been telling you that this would happen. Oil prices on Thursday fell below $50, and were at their lowest levels since December as the realities of …

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The Real Story Behind The Commodities Price Rebound

By John Richardson

THE job of anybody involved in financial markets, whether equities or commodities, is to of course make money – whether by going long or short. What matters, therefore, is not whether an economic theory ultimately turn out …

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China Polyethylene: Increased Local Naphtha Supply Threaten Imports And Margins

By John Richardson

CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) demand grew from around 22m tonnes in 2914 to approximately 25m tonnes in 2016 – an increase of 12.16% based on the exact numbers, according to ICIS Consulting.

Even better news for the global …

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China’s New Normal Propylene And Polymers Markets

By John Richardson

Here is, first of all, some history. Today’s chart is further evidence of the complete turnaround that has taken place in spot propylene and ethylene markets in Northeast Asia (by Northeast Asia this in effect means China …

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Modelling And Responding To China’s Demand Complexity

By John Richardson

PRODUCT by product you need to build alternative scenarios for demand growth in the key China market.

The future might end up being the same as the past up and down all the petrochemicals value chains. But …

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The New World Of Demand, Trade And Competition

By John Richardson

TOMORROW nearly always ended up being better than today for the polymers industry, thanks to the resilience of demand growth during the Economic Supercycle.

What also made life easy was the assumption that global free trade would, …

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China And A Breakdown In Free Trade: Scenarios For Petrochemicals

By John Richardson

MY blog post last Friday, on the threat to the petrochemicals industry of a retreat in global free trade, has gained a great deal of interest. This is good as this is an essential debate.

Today I …

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