By John Richardson THERE are personal reasons why local government officials in China might effectively resist the boldest economic reform agenda since 1978. Career advancement is one such reason, as is making money on the side. “By building a large dam, road or giant housing complex [or a new chemicals plant], an official can boost […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Australia: Nice Work If You Were Able To Get It
By John Richardson BACK in the late 1990s, the blog held a discussion with an Australian petrochemicals industry executive. He described his country’s approach to free trade, or rather the lack of it, as “to put it politely, naïve, and to put is less politely, plain stupid.” He was referring to how Australia had aggressively […]
China: No New “Demographic Dividend”
By John Richardson ANOTHER, on the surface, stunning announcement last Friday – along with promises of root and branch economic reforms – was China’s decision to relax its one-child policy. All of these announcements followed the conclusion of last week’s crucial Third Plenum. From now on, couples will be allowed to have two children if […]
Re-assembling China’s Incentive Systems
By John Richardson ON the surface, further details about decisions taken during the Third Plenum – which were released on Friday – were nothing short of stunning. They promise a “root of and branch” reform of China’s economy. But implementation will, of course, by the key. We worry that the whole incentive system will have […]
China’s November Plenum: The Verdict So Far
By John Richardson THE November Plenum is over and now the analysis has begun. Some commentators view the formal communiqué about the plenum – which was released by the government on Tuesday – with tremendous enthusiasm. Others, however, are disappointed, while a third group of commentators are sitting on the fence. This might not seem […]
The US Needs A Plenum
By John Richardson CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. This latter phrase underlines our argument that reform will be trial […]
China’s Demographics: What Is Your Contingency Plan?
By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011. Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals company executives need to print out and pin up on their boardroom walls as China heads […]
China’s Overshadowing Economic Importance
By John Richardson AS we head into this weekend’s crucial November plenum , it is worth remembering that there is no chemicals and polymers market to compare with China’s in volume terms anywhere else in Asia. Take polyproplyene (PP) as just one example. Industry estimates are that China’s consumption totalled around 16m tonnes in 2012. Its […]
China PE Market Strength Questioned
Dear blog reader – a technical error, beyond our control, means that we are unable to upload the tables and graphs for today’s post. Watch out next week, as, when the problem has been solved, we will add the missing tables and graphs. Apologies…. By John Richardson THE sustainability of the strength in China’s […]
China’s Debt Crisis Comes To A Head
By John Richardson HOW much longer will China’s central government continue to kick the can down the road? The answer to this question might well turn out to be the biggest single determinant of chemicals and polymers demand growth over the next few years. When the great rebalancing really kicks in, the wind could be […]
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