By John Richardson SOME people in the petrochemicals industry are showing great confidence in the future. Perhaps it is no coincidence that several of these people are said to be Chinese domestic traders in polyethylene (PE) and mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) who might have long positions to protect. But if PE is in genuinely wonderful shape, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Synthetic Fibres Recovery Questionable
By John Richardson THERE has been a strong recovery in China’s synthetic fibres value chain since May of this year, according to Becky Zhang, our excellent ICIS pricing Asian fibre intermediates and synthetic fibres editor, who keeps her finger firmly on the pulse of the market. Becky attributes the rebound to: Reports of stronger textile […]
The Great Polyethylene Mystery Hunt Continues
By John Richardson REPORTS of soaring apparent polyethylene (PE) demand (imports plus domestic production) in China continue as the search also persists for an explanation, given the country’s weak macro-economic environment. Last week we wrote of a 13% increase in demand in January-June of this year compared with the same months in 2011, based on data […]
Australia Misses China Slowdown, Faces Aus$33bn Writedown
By John Richardson THE blog was amazed over the weekend when it discovered that the country’s governing Labor Party has had to write down Aus$33.3bn in budget revenues in the space of just ten weeks, largely because it failed to forecast the extent of the slowdown in China. Australia, as a major resources exporter is, […]
Listen To The Iconoclasts
By John Richardson Does your company employ an independent economist who forms her or his own view of where China is heading, or does it instead just accept the conventional wisdom dished up by the big institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? A management consultant we spoke […]
China Household Incomes Matter More Than GDP
By John Richardson THE conventional way of measuring the health of an economy is, of course, to assume that the stronger the growth in GDP the better the outlook. But in China, rather than viewing charts such as the one above as bad news, they should be interpreted as a sign that all is good. […]
China PE Demand Up By 13% On Environmental Concerns, Restocking
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene (PE) surged by 13% in January-June this year (red column) compared with the same months in 2011 (blue), according to data from Global Trade Information Services. This represents a further improvement from the 10% increase in PE demand in the January-May period of 2013. “This is all […]
China PE Demand Boosted By New Environmental Clampdown On Recycling
By John Richardson BACK in 2009, virgin polyolefins demand growth in China was boosted by a sharp drop in imports of recycled or scrap plastic resulting from tougher enforcement of environmental regulations. Now another government crackdown on imports of scrap material, again due to environmental concerns, might have provided a further benefit to demand growth for […]
China’s “Mini-Stimulus” Package
By John Richardson The big question this morning for anybody concerned about China’s long-term economic future is whether its “mini-stimulus package” will do any good. Yesterday, Beijing announced that it would eliminate taxes on small businesses, reduce costs for exporters and line-up funds for the construction of railways. This followed Prime Minister Li Keqiang declaring […]
China’s Reform Process Jeopardised
By John Richardson LAST week’s decision by China to give its banks the freedom to compete for borrowers, by removing the floor on lending rates, has been praised by most analysts. “This is one of the biggest steps they could have taken. It tells you something about the trajectory,” Mark Williams, chief economist at Capital […]
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