By John Richardson THIS IS VERY much a personal plea to our industry about what I see as the biggest challenge we face in 2021 and beyond: carbon and other greenhouse gases. “We need to rebrand climate change as the climate crisis,” a source who works for an oil, gas and petrochemical company has been […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s BRI will go from strength to strength, redrawing global petrochemicals map
By John Richardson CHINA’S Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is alive and kicking and will, in my view, go from strength to strength as it radically reshapes the global economy, China’s geopolitical relationship with the US and global petrochemical trade flows and investments. Why it is alive and kicking? Because China has no other choice. […]
Polyethylene demand boom should not obscure focus on major changes in industry fundamentals
By John Richardson IT WASN’T supposed to be like this. We firstly had the unprecedented increases in global capacity that threatened a deep downcycle. Then we had the accepted wisdom, a wisdom I bought into, that the pandemic would dig a giant hole in polyethylene (PE) demand. As recently as March, few producers would have […]
Sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – how petchem companies respond will define their success
Just to stress again that this blog represents my personal views and not those if ICIS. By John Richardson YOU WILL NEED to constantly debate the details of the megatrends as they will very often change entirely. And whilst today’s four megatrends – sustainability, the pandemic, demographics and geopolitics – will remain unchanged, their relative […]
China polyethylene and ethlyene glycols in 2021: country-by-country outlook for exporters
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports could be at either 19.8m tonnes in 2021 or 16.8m tonnes, as I discussed on Wednesday. The above chart illustrates what effect these best- and worst-case outcomes would have on imports from China’s 12 biggest trading partners, assuming they win the same percentage market shares of the total […]
China may next year import 66% less PP from South Korea than in 2020, 72% less styrene from Saudi Arabia
By John Richardson All the numbers that follow are my estimates only and are not the official ICIS numbers. But I hope what follows helps you with your planning process for 2021. Our ICIS Supply & Demand Database is a key tool for your planning process, as all the scenarios below would have been impossible […]
No change in China’s policies seem likely under a Biden and Harris White House
By John Richardson WE NEED to talk about politics without being political – a very difficult task, but an essential one if we are to be dispassionate as humanly possible in our analysis, and thus produce worthwhile analysis. If we are not dispassionate, we end up shouting at each other; and when anyone shouts, nobody […]
Why China’s polyethylene imports could be either 22m tonnes or 3m tonnes in 2030
By John Richardson THERE are so many angles to this that, as with the potential outcomes of the US presidential election, China’s Fifth Plenum is worth many acres of newsprint. The plenum is taking place on 26-29 October, whereas, as everyone bar the odd Martian knows, the US election is on 3 November. The plenum […]
Plastic rubbish: the pandemic is increasing rather than reducing the pressure for change
This is the first of a series of blog posts where I will examine the environmental paradigm shift and what it means for the petrochemicals industry. This first post deals with the bottom end of the value chain, the plastic packaging business, and the pressure being exerted upward on petrochemicals producers to change how they […]
Retreat of globalisation and implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson EVER SINCE the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, and the last great geopolitical struggle came to an end, the petrochemicals business has benefited from a highly globalised world. Product has flowed, almost seamlessly, from one country to another in ever greater volumes. Sure, it has never been the case of feedstock advantage […]