Tag Archives | China exports

China’s PP Import Decline: Did you See This Coming?

By John Richardson

THE smart people in the polypropylene (PP) business will have already adjusted their strategies in response to evidence, from 2009 onwards, that China was very aggressively expanding its PP capacities.

They would have tracked the rapid rate …

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Chasing Inflation: When Something Doesn’t Work, Stop Doing It

By John Richardson

In Greek mythology Sisyphus was punished for chronic deceitfulness by being compelled to roll an immense boulder up a hill, only to watch it roll back down, repeating this action forever.

There is a good comparison here …

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China’s Currency Appreciates By 26% In Four Years

By John Richardson

THE above chart further illustrates the dilemma confronting China, which, despite the often-discussed and wrongly interpreted growth in its domestic consumption, still depends on exports for about a quarter of its GDP.

Based on Bank of International …

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China Exports: Whatever It Takes To Boost Volumes

By John Richardson

HERE is a reminder of some key facts about the Chinese economy:…

Investment, in the form of local real estate, infrastructure and industrial capacity accounts for around 50% of the country’s GDP.
China’s total investment levels are

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China Capacity Closures? Stop Whistling In The Dark

By John Richardson

Measured in US dollars, the price of US imports from China has risen just by 4% over the last ten years, but measured in Yuan, it has actually fallen by no less than 20% (see our above …

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China: Don’t Get Caught Naked

By John Richardson

THAT’S it then, the evidence is in that the September surge in China’s exports was, indeed, as I thought, substantially down to fake invoicing.

“The gap between China’s reported exports to Hong Kong and the territory’s imports …

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China’s September “Export Boom”. Are You Serious?

By John Richardson

WHEN something seems to be so obviously too good to be true, based on lots of contrary evidence, then it usually is.

And so here’s the thing:…

Nobody should take any serious notice of the 15.3% year-on-year

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China’s Bogus Export Boom

By John Richardson

CHINA’S strong export growth in July and August is widely viewed as fantastic compensation for weaker growth at home. It also viewed as a sign that the global economy has perhaps, turned a corner,

But now it …

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China Credit Squeeze Further Weakens “Real Demand”

By John Richardson

DESPITE the 26% increase in China’s polyethylene (PE) imports in Q1 of this year over the same period in 2013, “real demand” continues to weaken – i.e. the resin bought by end-users to actually make things.

The …

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China Drives Down Yuan To Protect Jobs

By John Richardson

WE first warned in December 2011 that as China’s economic reforms accelerated, Yuan depreciation was a strong possibility.

 And then in May of last year, we picked up the theme again by again suggesting that as growth …

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