FEW PEOPLE HAVE made money out of shorting China. Time and time again, brief periods of weak economic growth have been followed by roaring, eye-wateringly big recoveries.
Asian Chemical Connections
China PP demand improvement points to huge global dependence on just one country
By John Richardson AS I’VE BEEN arguing for the past ten years, the global petrochemicals industry is enormously, disproportionately, reliant on growth in and exports to just one country. No prizes, I am afraid, for identifying that country as China. My colleagues from our analytics and consulting team have calculated a remarkable summary of what […]
Global PP demand growth being dragged lower by the developing world
By John Richardson IN NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES the above chart – which shows our base case for global polypropylene (PP) demand in 2021 versus my downside for this year – would be extremely significant. If anything like the weaker growth I envisage for this year were to materialise, the whole world would be pushed into significant […]
China panic over a downturn in H2 2021 is as overcooked the H1 boom narrative
By John Richardson THERE is a lot of very unhelpful noise out there about China which is making it very difficult for petrochemical producers and buyers to see the real picture. But the noise is of great benefit to petrochemical and financial traders as, of course, noise accompanied by volatility is how traders make their […]
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]
China Power Woes Hit Chem Output
By Malini Hariharan and John Richardson The power crisis in China, highlighted in this post last month and yesterday, has worsened and is likely to affect economic output in the second quarter. More than 10 provinces, including Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, Sichuan and Henan, have been affected. Small and medium-sized petrochemical producers in the […]