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Asian Chemical Connections

Why China’s Polyethylene Imports Have Surged

  By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) imports jumped by 26% in the first quarter of this year over the same period in 2013, according to data from Global Trade Information Services (see the above chart). This isn’t the result of a dip in domestic production that had to be made up by  imports, as […]

PVC’s Unsustainable China Growth

By John Richardson POLYMER markets continue to tell us that China’s 2009-2010 economic stimulus programme delivered unsustainable demand growth. China’s demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) surged from 10.9m tonnes in 2009 to 13.2m tonnes in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services (GTIS).  Demand then reached 14.1m tonnes in 2011. The slowdown in growth reflected government […]

China To The Rescue Again? Unlikely….

By John Richardson AS the global economy enters a new recession the great hope, as we discussed yesterday, is that China once again steps in with a stimulus package as did in late 2008. But can China risk a repeat of the huge increase in bank lending, a key part of that stimulus package? The answer […]

The View From Ground Level Is Different

By John Richardson The macroeconomic headwinds are building, making it hard for some of those at the ground level in Asian polyolefin markets to foresee anything but fragile and tough trading conditions. This is in marked contrast to the fairly optimistic outlook presented by some of the big, well-integrated and differentiated chemicals and polymer companies […]

Cosy Platitudes Are Not Enough

By John Richardson DO you trust your government to always get it right? The answer in the case of the West is “of course not”, but in China’s case the publicly-expressed assumption still holds that the economy is being effectively managed. CEOs of chemicals and polymer companies might find it politically challenging to openly say […]

Growing Uncertainties Cloud Chemicals Outlook

By John Richardson THE global growth outlook grows ever murkier as a result of credit tightening in China (or is the problem instead continued strong growth in lending?), inflation problems throughout Asia, possible monetary tightening in the West, the direction of oil prices and the Japanese tsunami-earthquake. We feel that this is making the rest […]

China Polyolefins Divorced From Fundamentals

A permanent separation? Source of picture: edu.com   By John Richardson IT IS pretty easy to predict specific events that will cause declines in polyolefins pricing in China next year thanks to the big role that macro-economics now plays in setting the market. No longer do you need to mainly sweat over increasingly difficult polyethylene […]

December Polyolefin Price Rises Flounder

“I am so happy to be supporting polyethylene film pricing”…. Source of picture: Canada-China Agriculture and Food Development Exchange   By John Richardson IT looks as if attempts by polyolefin producers to raise prices for December deliveries have, as we predicted last week, been largely unsuccessful. Some grades of polypropylene (PP) edged up by $10-20/tonne […]

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