By John Richardson Following on from my post on Wednesday, please study the quite remarkable chart below, and, if you are not making Common Prosperity the very centrepiece of your strategic planning process, ask yourself, “Why not?”. Then please, please change direction before it’s too late. What you can see are the ICIS estimates for […]
Asian Chemical Connections
With Common Prosperity set to dominate 2022, here is some essential history
By John Richardson THERE IS ONLY one slight problem with the argument that developing world demand is behind the boom in petrochemicals demand over the last 20 years: the data. Sorry to begin the year on a rather sarcastic note, but this is unfortunately a drum I feel I need to keep banging to support […]
China phenol self-sufficiency: another one could bite the dust
By John Richardson IT IS A FANTASTIC song from a great band. Another One Bites the Dust by Queen underlines the versatility of a band that could not be pinned down. They never stuck to a genre, but instead adhered with the strength of epoxy resin-based glues to excellent song writing and performing. When analysing […]
Here is your guide to Asian and Global HDPE markets in Q4 this year and in 2022
By John Richardson THE COMING COLLAPSE of China, as I’ve discussed is before, is like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil – perpetually 10 years away. But what seems evident to me is that over the next six to 18 months, as China transitions to what I believe will be a successful new and […]
China carbon limits and Evergrande tied together as short term growth challenges build
By John Richardson Executive summary THE LIKELIHOOD that 227,000 tonnes of China’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) coal-based capacity is forecast to be lost to plant shutdowns in September and October this year looks at first glance to be good news for exporters to China. This would be much higher than the 43,000 tonnes of […]
China real estate a growing stress point for global chemicals demand
By John Richardson WE ALL know, or at least we all should know, just how important is the Chinese economy to the global economy. Assume significantly weaker-than-consensus Chinese demand growth in everything from base chemicals to autos, smartphones and TVs, and there is no statistical basis for believing that strong growth in other regions can […]
Oil Prices Over The Next Six Months: What You Need To Know
By John Richardson SURPRISED by the latest decline in crude prices following the US Energy Administration’s (EIA) report that more oil went in to storage last week than in any other week in 34 years? You really shouldn’t be if you have taken note of another extraordinary data set from the EIA that shows the […]
China’s Latest Real Estate Bubble And The Lessons Of History
By John Richardson ARE you still playing catch-up on China as events once again take what you think are an entirely unexpected turn? If so, you haven’t learned the lessons of the last three years. In late 2013, after the critically important Third Plenum meeting of China’s top political leaders, it was crystal clear that […]
China’s New Real Estate Bubble: A LitmusTest For Economic Reforms
By John Richardson NEARLY three years on from when the Chinese central government first promised to reform local government financing, little progress appears to have been made: Local governments are still addicted to land sales to meet their funding requirements. At the heart of the problem is this: Although China might still need 800m square metres […]
China Peak Steel And Chemicals Demand May Have Arrived
By John Richardson EVERYONE involved in the iron ore business must be very worried about the recent speech by the new chairman of the China Iron & Steel Association. “Under the ‘new normal’ China’s iron and steel consumption has already entered into the peak zone,” he told his audience. China’s steel consumption will peak at […]
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