Source of graph: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/ By John Richardson “Candide, the classic novel of the great French writer Voltaire, is a satirical description of a young man who has been taught that ‘everything is for the best in the best of all possible worlds’,” wrote Paul Hodges in this blog post last week. Thus, we have […]
Asian Chemical Connections
PVC’s Unsustainable China Growth
By John Richardson POLYMER markets continue to tell us that China’s 2009-2010 economic stimulus programme delivered unsustainable demand growth. China’s demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) surged from 10.9m tonnes in 2009 to 13.2m tonnes in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). Demand then reached 14.1m tonnes in 2011. The slowdown in growth reflected government […]
China Politics
In the last of our series of blog posts on some of the major challenges facing China’s economy over the next 12-18 months, we look at politics. By John Richardson THE outcome of the battle over China’s economic direction is, of course, of crucial importance to the world economy. It would be comforting […]
China Deflation
The second of our series of blog posts on China’s economic challenges over the next 12-18 months focuses on deflation. By John Richardson DEFLATION has now become a major concern for the Chinese economy following the release of official data earlier this week that showed a 2.1 percent decline in producer prices in June […]
China Bad Debts
In the first of a series of blog posts on the major challenges facing China’s economy over the next 12-18 months, we look at bad debts. High stakes in Hangzhou. Source of picture: Wikimedia By John Richardson A fascinating blog post by Patrick Chovanec makes this very worrying observation about China’s bad debt […]
China’s VUCA Moment
Ben Bernanke. Source of picture: Wikipedia By John Richardson OUR next three blog posts will examine some of the threats to a recovery in China’s chemicals and polymer demand growth over the next 12-18 months. We will look at: *Debt. Is China already confronting a Ben Bernanke moment? (In November 2007, the Fed […]
PE Middle East Offers Keep Falling
By John Richardson POLYOLEFIN markets are not going to bottom out until August-September at the earliest, according to several producers and traders who the blog spoke to yesterday. And even if prices do eventually stop declining, confidence has all but disappeared that there will be any substantial recovery in either pricing or demand for the […]
Demand Is The Thing
By John Richardson In the second of a series of three blog posts, we gauge the reaction of the market to last week’s sharp decline in polyolefin prices. Yesterday, we focused on the Middle East. Today, we interview a source with a Western-headquartered global polyolefin producer. He told us: “I have a dreadful feeling that […]
China Economic Optimism
By John Richardson ECONOMISTS think China’s growth has bottomed out, thanks to unexpectedly strong March bank lending. They also think that interest rates will stay low for a long time, even if rates cannot be cut because of the inflation problem. New loans in March totalled Rmb1trn ($159bn), more than banking analysts had expected. This renewed […]
China And Inflation
By John Richardson MUCH excitement heralded the announcement that February inflation in China had fallen to a 20-month low of 3.2 percent – well within the government’s annualised target of 4 percent. This led to the belief that the government would boost bank lending, and maybe further low bank-reserve requirements and interest rates. No doubt this […]
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