Instead of demand for the nine polymers growing by 7m tonnes in 2022 under our base cases, my downsides see consumption falling by 6m tonnes.
Asian Chemical Connections
China recovery appears to lose steam as PE and PP self-sufficiency increases
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I did not warn you. The post-coronavirus recovery in China is already losing steam in April after a rebound in activity in March, according to this Bloomberg article. Domestic consumer sentiment is weak and export orders have collapsed as a result of the global pandemic, according to the wire service, […]
US ethylene glycols: Diversifying away from China may prove impossible
By John Richardson US BUSINESSES are making arrangements to diversify their supply chains away from China because of a recognition that, even if a short term trade deal is done, the long term trajectory is towards a much more confrontational relationship between the US and China, says Jacob Parker, vice president of China operations at […]
China purified terephthalic net exports to reach 2.7m tonnes by 2025
By John Richardson LET’S START with the good news first. ICIS Data and Analytics had expected China’s demand for paraxylene (PX) to grow by in 2018 at 5.6% over 2017, but instead I estimate growth at 9.2%. This was awesome news for the world’s major PX producers as the reason for the strong growth was […]
China Restructures The Global Petchems Business
By John Richardson This chart should truly take your breath away as it shows that: China’s purified terephthalic acid (PTA) exports fell from 2.5m tonnes in January-November 2013 to just over a million tonnes for the same period this year. That is a collapse of around 60%. Meanwhile, exports surged – again on the same […]
China’s Next Target: Paraxylene Self-Sufficiency?
By John Richardson ONLY a few years ago, people were discussing the great opportunities in purified terephthalic acid (PTA) as a globally traded product. I can remember confident talk of strong opportunities for export-based projects – especially, of course, projects that targeted the key China market. And yet, remarkably, during the first day of the […]
China PTA Imports Halve As Exports Surge
By John Richardson CHINA’S purified terepthalic acid (PTA) imports fell to just 751,000 tonnes in the first half of this year compared with 1.56m tonnes in H1 2013. Meanwhile, exports increased to 232,000 tonnes from only 27,000 tonnes. The sad thing is that whilst, of course, the data was impossible to predict with such a […]
China Consumer Confidence “The Worst In 17 Years”
By John Richardson LAST year, the blog was told that business at some high-end restaurants in Beijing had fallen by as much as 90% because of the government’s crackdown on corruption. And China’s top military officials are scared to even park their cars in the vicinity of high-end restaurants in case they are accused of […]
More People Wanting To Buy Than Sell
By John Richardson SOME people in the petrochemicals industry are showing great confidence in the future. Perhaps it is no coincidence that several of these people are said to be Chinese domestic traders in polyethylene (PE) and mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) who might have long positions to protect. But if PE is in genuinely wonderful shape, […]
Everywhere You Look
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you look across China’s petrochemical markets the story is the same as in polyethylene (PE): Exceptionally weak demand during a time of the year when demand should be good. Take purified terephthalic acid (PTA) as an example. “Asia’s purified PTA spot prices fell in the week ended 15 March on reflection of […]
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