Tag Archives | China

Oil Prices Could Fall On Stalling Of Trump Agenda

By John Richardson

WHILST some Republicans claim that the House bill to replace the Affordable Care Act goes too far, others have called it “Obamacare lite”.

And unless the Affordable Care Act is replaced, or at least modified, by the …

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China Credit And Economic Growth To Slow Again

By John Richardson

Since early 2014, China’s economic history has been one of start, stop reforms.

First of all, President Xi Jinping (pictured right) was in control as his “Princeling” political faction began to effectively implement the bold reform vision …

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Trump, China’s Geographic Realities And The Risks Ahead

By John Richardson

DONALD Trump doesn’t read that many books. But one book that he should read (assuming he hasn’t done already,and so apologies in advance if I am wrong) is Tim Marshall’s excellent Prisoners of Geography.

The chapter on …

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India’s Demonitisation: Measuring The Real Impact

By John Richardson

FOR those interested in what demonitisation might mean for Indian polyethylene (PE) demand in the calendar years 2016 and 2017, the above two charts will be useful.

The top chart shows our base case for Indian demand …

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Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance

By John Richardson

COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC …

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Polyethylene Pricing, Profits In 2017: Three Scenarios

By John Richardson

WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War.

There is, for example, …

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OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact

By John Richardson

OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, …

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China: 2017-2020 Scenarios For Polypropylene Growth

By John Richardson

IS this the moment when Xi Jinping decides to take most of the pain of economic reforms?

A recent article in Caixin, the Chinese business and finance magazine, suggests that the moment could have arrived:

This week, …

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Global Trade: What The New Dynamics Mean For Petchems

By John Richardson

THE result of this year’s US presidential election may well be determined by one issue – trade – as yesterday’s first presidential debate perhaps indicated.

These are incredibly dangerous times for the global economy, and with it, …

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What Exclusion From China’s One Belt, One Road Looks Like

By John Richardson

IS the whole world really turning again free trade? No, if you consider the potential improvement in trade flows between the 65 mainly developing countries which make up China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.

What we …

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