By John Richardson WHILST some Republicans claim that the House bill to replace the Affordable Care Act goes too far, others have called it “Obamacare lite”. And unless the Affordable Care Act is replaced, or at least modified, by the end of this year, then the rest of President Trump’s legislative programme for 2017 might […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Credit And Economic Growth To Slow Again
By John Richardson Since early 2014, China’s economic history has been one of start, stop reforms. First of all, President Xi Jinping (pictured right) was in control as his “Princeling” political faction began to effectively implement the bold reform vision outlined in late 2013 at the pivotal 3rd Plenum Meeting of China’s top politicians. The Princelings […]
Trump, China’s Geographic Realities And The Risks Ahead
By John Richardson DONALD Trump doesn’t read that many books. But one book that he should read (assuming he hasn’t done already,and so apologies in advance if I am wrong) is Tim Marshall’s excellent Prisoners of Geography. The chapter on China, for instance, argues that: China’s ‘Nine Dash Line’, which in 2013 became ten dashes […]
India’s Demonitisation: Measuring The Real Impact
By John Richardson FOR those interested in what demonitisation might mean for Indian polyethylene (PE) demand in the calendar years 2016 and 2017, the above two charts will be useful. The top chart shows our base case for Indian demand growth, and for operating rates, from our Supply & Demand database. This was drawn up before Narendra Modi’s […]
Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance
By John Richardson COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC comply with their production cutbacks. We might of course steer around the iceberg, but, as […]
Polyethylene Pricing, Profits In 2017: Three Scenarios
By John Richardson WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War. There is, for example, the collateral damage that might well result from the president-elect’s domestic stimulus policies – a […]
OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact
By John Richardson OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, barring a major geopolitical crisis. We are very likely heading for is a global recession in […]
China: 2017-2020 Scenarios For Polypropylene Growth
By John Richardson IS this the moment when Xi Jinping decides to take most of the pain of economic reforms? A recent article in Caixin, the Chinese business and finance magazine, suggests that the moment could have arrived: This week, the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a new policy requiring […]
Global Trade: What The New Dynamics Mean For Petchems
By John Richardson THE result of this year’s US presidential election may well be determined by one issue – trade – as yesterday’s first presidential debate perhaps indicated. These are incredibly dangerous times for the global economy, and with it, of course, the chemicals industry. It is not just in the US, but also in […]
What Exclusion From China’s One Belt, One Road Looks Like
By John Richardson IS the whole world really turning again free trade? No, if you consider the potential improvement in trade flows between the 65 mainly developing countries which make up China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. What we could instead see is the creation of the world’s biggest free-trade bloc, accounting for 40% […]
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