By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world you have to start with political, social and macroeconomic factors to help build your map of global chemicals trade flows over the next ten years. You next need to consider the old standard measures of feedstock availability, access to technology and logistics costs etc. Why are these traditional ways of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Xi’s Overture Finishes As China’s Real Reforms Begin
By John Richardson We’re going to see pretty soon whether this man [China’s President, Xi Jinping] is for real. THE above quote, from Chinese Studies professor Kerry Brown in this FT article, is something else that you should print out and pin on your chemicals company boardroom wall. You then need to write below this print-out, “Yes, […]
China Reformers Regain The Upper Hand
By John Richardson THE above chart indicates that the reformers have regained influence in China: Whilst new loans from state-owned banks in May beat analysts’ expectations by a big distance, total social financing (TSF), which is the measure of all forms of new lending, was substantially down compared with the previous month. The reason for lower […]
Emerging Markets: 67.7 More Years To Catch Up With US
By John Richardson IF I had a dollar in my pocket for every time I had read or heard the phrase “the rise of the middle classes in the emerging markets” in the context that this was a tremendous opportunity for the global economy, I would be pretty rich by now. And I would be […]
China PP Import Decline Challenges Global Markets
By John Richardson THE latest data on China’s polypropylene (PP) imports should set alarm bells ringing in polyolefin company board rooms: China’s PP production was up by 14% in January-April 2016 versus the same four months last year, with imports falling by 20% on the same year-on-year basis. January-April imports in 2016 were at their […]
“Out Of The Box” Solutions Can Prevent Global Trade Tensions
By John Richardson IF you are a politician in the West, one approach to today’s crisis of global industrial overcapacity is heap most of the blame on China and threaten China with trade barriers. But if China doesn’t respond to your rhetoric, the problem is that you might be forced to follow through by actually […]
Oil Prices: Beware Return Of The Financial Bears
By John Richardson THE above chart shows the extent to which this year’s oil-price rally has been led by futures markets. What is significant, though, is that futures activity seems to have plateaued. Sure, futures activity could easily go the other way again, driving prices significantly above the $50/bbl level. But barring a decision by […]
Asian Polyethylene: Challenge The New Paradigm
By John Richardson IT would be very interesting to go back to 2000 and compare the strength of positive sentiment towards the future of the Asian polyethylene (PE) industry to the above chart. The chart shows spreads between naphtha costs, which is the main feedstock for making PE in Asia, and the prices for one […]
Managing Relationships And Demand In China
By John Richardson SOME of China’s plastic converters started out life with loans of just a few thousands yuan from private small lenders, or even friends and family. But now these same converters operate nationwide networks of factories and are multi-millionaires. And with scale has also come sophistication. No longer do they just make basic […]
Reliance On Any China Polymer Deficit Will Not Work
By John Richardson THE “last big man standing’, as polyethylene (PE) was described to me during my visit to Shanghai last week, is widely expected to remain in major deficit in China for the next decade at least. As PE is the foundation of the cracker business – i.e. it is the main reason […]
Jump to page: