By John Richardson MOST Asian stock markets took a hammering on Wednesday because of the sharp decline in Chinese equities. So did commodity markets, as my colleague Nigel Davis pointed out in this Insight article when he wrote: Copper prices hit new 2015 lows, iron ore futures were down sharply. Plastics futures prices plunged on […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Broad Commodities Sell-Off Threatens Petrochemicals
By John Richardson IRON ore prices are now down by nearly 40% so far this year to a level not seen since September 2009. As for crude oil, Brent has now dipped below $100 per barrel, for the first time in over a year. WTI is trading around $92 per barrel, a 16-month low (see the […]
China Iron Ore Stocks Can Build 1,200 Empire State Buildings
By John Richardson CHINA’S commodity imports boom was, of course, mainly down to the rise its middle class as hundreds of millions more of its citizens became rich enough to buy a refrigerator, a TV and a car for the first time. Or was it? Daniel De Blocq van Schetlinga, the Hong Kong-based head of […]
China’s Polypropylene Imports: The Balance Of Probabilities
CHINA’S polypropylene (PP) imports increased by 11.3% in January-April of this year compared with the same period in 2013, according to the latest available China customs data. There could be lots of reasons for this. One reason might be that the fairly subdued tone of just about everybody you speak to in markets is wrong […]
Australia: Nice Work If You Were Able To Get It
By John Richardson BACK in the late 1990s, the blog held a discussion with an Australian petrochemicals industry executive. He described his country’s approach to free trade, or rather the lack of it, as “to put it politely, naïve, and to put is less politely, plain stupid.” He was referring to how Australia had aggressively […]
Irrationality And Staying Solvency
By John Richardson JOHN Maynard Keynes, the famous economist and speculator , once said “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” In other words, if you are a trader you can sit around for ages waiting for the fundamentals to drive any particular market, and, as a result, go bust – […]
Adjusting Inventories To Lower China Growth
By John Richardson EXCESSIVE inventory building across a range of commodities in China, including petrochemicals, continues to worry the blog. One reason, as we discussed yesterday, might be that traders are in the midst of a liquidity squeeze as a result of the late June credit crackdown. They have therefore taken out further very-aggressive positions […]
China Commodities Rally About Protecting Existing Debt
By John Richardson OVER the last few days we have focused on the increased risk-on trade in commodities, including petrochemicals. But maybe the rallies we have seen in products such as fibre intermediates and polyethylene (PE) are mainly about traders being forced to increase their risk profiles in order to protect existing liquidity. Here is the […]
China Export And Import Data May Obscure The Real Picture
By John Richardson CONFUSED? Perhaps, as was definitely the case last Friday, you shouldn’t be. The thrilled reaction of financial markets to the release of China’s July export and import data needs to be put into the context of it being one positive set of data in a long-running series of negative data. On the […]
China To Grow at 3 Percent
By John Richardson THE possibility that China’s economy may not expand as rapidly in the future as in the past is never discussed in public by resources-company CEOs, said an Australian-based stockbroker. His comments ring true for petrochemicals, also. The blog is struggling to find a senior executive willing to discuss this possibility on the […]