By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 at risk of 2.4m decline because of coronavirus
By John Richardson I AM a bit confused this morning following some excitement about the Chinese decision to allow polyethylene (PE) importers to apply for exemptions from the 25% additional tariffs on US high-density (HDPE) and linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that have been in place since August 2018. One of my contacts for instance sent […]
China 2020 polyethylene demand 4.1m tonnes lower on single-use plastics ban and coronavirus
By John Richardson CHINA was supposed to be the one polyethylene (PE) market we could all depend on during a period of unprecedented oversupply. This is no longer the case. As I discussed last week, 2019 could well have been another stellar year for the country’s demand growth with consumption of PE at some 33.9m […]
China’s bans on single-use plastics: The impact on polyethylene demand
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. It has always been just a question of time before China took its plastic rubbish crisis very seriously, as I argued in an April 2019 blog post: It seems clear that plastics rubbish will become a major focus of the Chinese government, affecting all […]
Why the trade deal is much ado about almost nothing
These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]
US and Iran conflict in a world of declining growth and fragile supply chains
By John Richardson THINK of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and multiply its impact on global supply chains by at least a factor of ten. Then place the supply disruptions from the US and Iran conflict into the context of an already weakening global economy and you can begin to grasp the risks ahead. The […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Asian polypropylene market heads for major 2020 downturn
By John Richardson THE ASIAN polypropylene (PP) market hasn’t been as bad as the region’s polyethylene (PE) market in 2019 because of much more limited increases in supply. Whereas the PE market has been flooded with new US production, especially in linear-low density PE (LLDPE), increases in PP output have been much lower. Not for […]
Europe to become much more self-sufficient in polyethylene because of sustainability
Yes, I know I promised to focus on Asia and its cracker-to-PE industry today and how the region will not see shutdowns that will make way for the big increase in US production. This will still be a theme of a later post. But it occurred to me, after my post on Sunday, that I […]
The global polyethylene paradigm shift of permanently weaker demand
By John Richardson MALCOLM GLADWELL, in his very thought provoking book The Outliers, writes about what we think is gut instinct, but is instead the result of a minimum of 10,000 hours of doing something: Sub-conscious expertise that tells us how to think and react in most situations because we’ve been here before. So, when […]