By John Richardson SEVERAL contacts have said to me over the last two weeks that increased medical and food security demand for petrochemicals is a distraction from coming to terms with the huge collapse in demand for all of our products that go into the durable goods which people are no longer buying. I agree […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Be very, very cautious about buying into the idea of a Q2 crude price rally
By John Richardson IT IS the unprecedented nature of the demand shock that’s the thing, regardless of how much Saudi Arabia and Russia might cut crude production. In the old world, big production cutbacks would often result in a sustained rise in oil prices. But that was when there was normal demand. With some 3bn […]
Petrochemical feedstock purchasing managers: What to think about and what do next
By John Richardson ALL THE old assumptions about how oil, feedstock and petrochemicals markets work need to quite literally be thrown out of the window. No old model or way of thinking will work anymore until the crisis is over. The permanent changes that will take place in markets, and there will be many, is […]
Coronavirus: The new ten-point guide for the petrochemicals industry
By John Richardson EARLIER THIS month I provided you with a ten-point guide for the impact of coronavirus on the petrochemicals industry. There have been many, many changes since then. Here is the latest version: The number One priority is employees and their well-being. Their psychological and emotional as well as physical needs will be […]
Big declines in Chinese polyethylene imports, a global recession and a financial crisis
By John Richardson YOU MIGHT be hoping that sanity will be restored after the “most expensive speech history” – Donald Trump’s comments that have been unfairly or otherwise blamed for yesterday’s rout in global stock markets. But has the market really been oversold, mainly or entirely in response to a few ill-judged words from the […]
Sustained collapse in oil prices: Effect on petrochemicals and the global economy
By John Richardson IT COULD be a game of chicken designed to pull Russia back to the negotiating table and the Saudis might win the game. This is how you could be interpreting the Saudi decision to raise oil production and offer aggressive discounts to customers following last week’s failure by OPEC to agree cuts […]
Decline of 2.1m tonnes in 2020 global polypropylene demand now seems best possible outcome
By John Richardson EVERY DAY that goes by when China is not entirely back at work the economic damage is multiplying. It already looks as if the best China can hope for is real as opposed to politically manufactured 2020 GDP growth of around 2.25%. And that assumes a rapid economic rebound from Q2, which […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 could fall by 3.3m tonnes, cost curve analysis turned on its head
By John Richardson NOTHING that’s happened over the last few days that should surprise anyone who has been following my blog over the last few years. What was obviously impossible to forecast was the timing and nature of the catalyst. As I wrote on Monday: This crisis has been a long time coming. The build-up […]
China polyethylene imports could be 3m tonnes lower as economy seizes up
By John Richardson IT IS TIME for crisis planning, I am afraid, as a result of the World Health Organisation’s warning that the “window of opportunity” for preventing a global pandemic is narrowing. The risks have increased substantially over the last few days with major outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy and South Korea. A disease […]
Global polyethylene demand in 2020 at risk of 2.4m decline because of coronavirus
By John Richardson I AM a bit confused this morning following some excitement about the Chinese decision to allow polyethylene (PE) importers to apply for exemptions from the 25% additional tariffs on US high-density (HDPE) and linear-low density PE (LLDPE) that have been in place since August 2018. One of my contacts for instance sent […]