CHINA’S imports from the US surge by 220% in January-May 2023 as local production falls by 11% and as imports decline from Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.
Asian Chemical Connections
The big challenges facing the world’s HDPE exporters
Saudi Arabia and South Korea must find alternative HDPE markets to China, as China’s demand weakens and it becomes more self-sufficient
The China debate seems to be over so let’s move on to other markets
With China’s demand growth at 1-2% and with complete self-sufficiency possible, PP exports must look to break their China dependence.
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
China, demographics, debt and polymers demand
China’s polymers consumption in 2022 107m tonnes from a population of 1.4bn. The developing world ex-China’s consumption was at 84m tonnes from a population of 5.3bn. And the developed world consumed 82m from 1.1bn people.
The old China and HDPE, the new China and the future of demand
In my downside scenario for China’s HDPE demand in 2023-2040 is correct, the country’s total consumption during this period would be 134m tonnes lower than the ICIS Base Case.
Why PP producers need to shift from maximising volumes to adding value through sustainability
Why dig more oil and gas out of the ground to make petrochemicals when the carbon cost is potentially ruinous for our climate? This might be a question increasingly asked by legislators, shareholders and the general public – rightly or wrongly.
China HDPE demand set for 3% decline this year with, perhaps, overstocking supporting the other grades
CHINA’S POLYETHYLENE (PE) market has performed in a very mixed fashion so far in 2023, as the above chart tells us.
The annualised January-March 2023 data suggest a 3% fall in high-density PE (HDPE) full-year demand over 2022, a 3% in increase in low-density PE (LDPE) demand and a 4% increase in linear-low density PE (LLDPE) consumption.
China’s one-off PE demand boom and why consumption could now shrink
The ICIS Base Case is already very conservative, assuming an annual average China PE demsnd growth of just 2% per year between 2023 and 2025 compared with 11% in 2000-2022. But I see average growth of only 1% or even minus 2% as perfectly possible.
Decarbonisation, the timing of the end of this downcycle and building future growth
BECAUSE the old certainties of strong demand growth in China and elsewhere are over, sustainability must be at the core of new petrochemicals growth models.