Tag Archives | Gloom & The New Normal

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Goldman Sachs Changes Its View On Oil

By John Richardson

OUR blogs are awarding themselves a pat on the back today. The reason is that investment bank Goldman Sachs, the largest player in commodity markets, has completely reversed its analysis of oil markets. They now accept our …

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BBC News Warns On China’s Demographic Crisis

A major new report from BBC News suggests that “China’s economic model is in danger” due to its rapidly ageing population.It reaches exactly the same conclusions as in our Boom, Gloom and the New Normal ebook. Chapter 6, published in …

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China’s Demographic Crisis

          

           Chinese govt poster promoting the one-child policy  

 

 

By John Richardson

IF all you can remember is strong emerging markets growth, then it is easy to be misled into only building into your scenarios the notion that China and …

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New Policies Needed To Restore Growth

Politicians seem to be floundering as they seek to restore growth to the Western economy. Their prescriptions swing between austerity and economic stimulus as they argue over what has gone wrong.

But in chapter 10 of our Boom, Gloom & …

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Oil Prices And Demand Destruction

By John Richardson

THE danger that high oil prices pose to the global economy, and therefore, of course, petrochemicals demand, has been highlighted by a new report from HSBC.

It makes the point that quantitative easing, which has led to …

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Morgan Stanley Bullish Again

By John Richardson

MORGAN Stanley has once again produced a very bullish forecast for China’s polyethylene (PE) market.

The investment bank was famous for devising the SuperCycle theory in late 2010. It failed to take into account clear signs that 2011 was going …

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China And The WTO Ten Years On

By John Richardson

TEN years ago this weekend China officially joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO), and so no doubt numerous speeches have been given about all the benefits to the global economy.

Here is a somewhat more negative perspective:

*As the diagram …

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Relief Rallies Will Not Be Sustained

By John Richardson

FURTHER relief rallies in petrochemical markets that occur over the next few weeks and months will not change the overall direction.

Buyers will inevitably run short of stocks down all the value chains and we thus will see …

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India Needs A New Political Direction

Manmohan Singh compromises to the point where “policy has no direction”

Source of picture: Wikipedia

 

By John Richardson

IN A week during which the Eurozone could quite easily break-up, the influence that individual political leaders will have on shaping …

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