By John Richardson INDONESIA’S new president seems like a breath of fresh air because he is outside the establishment and has portrayed himself as a man of the people. But one of Joko Widodo’s problems is that the establishment isn’t going to go down with a fight, as the appeal against his victory by rival […]
Asian Chemical Connections
“Fragile Five” Now “The Exposed Eight”
By John Richardson IT used to be just the “Fragile Five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. But last week, the Financial Times, drawing on data and analysis from Schroders, added three more countries to the list of those most-exposed to Fed tapering: Hungary, Poland and Chile. Thus we needed a new handy […]
China’s Debts: Close Your Eyes, Hope For The Best
By John Richardson LACK of transparency is fine when any economy is booming. Think of Indonesia pre-1998 before the fall of Soeharto. No foreign or local investor really cared that much about where the suitcases of money were going because the price of corruption was well worth paying. Similarly in the US before 2008, most […]
China’s Overshadowing Economic Importance
By John Richardson AS we head into this weekend’s crucial November plenum , it is worth remembering that there is no chemicals and polymers market to compare with China’s in volume terms anywhere else in Asia. Take polyproplyene (PP) as just one example. Industry estimates are that China’s consumption totalled around 16m tonnes in 2012. Its […]
Malaysia’s Scary Investment And Spending Bubbles
Source: http://www.globalpropertyguide.com By John Richardson Will this time really be different in Southeast Asia? Everyone hopes so. But the arguments put forward by economist Jesse Colombo back in January – about investment bubbles building up across the region – served as an early warning that it is possible we are heading for another economic crisis […]
Indonesia Petchem Investments
By John Richardson THE project activity in Indonesia, as the slide above, from our ICIS training Introduction to Petrochemicals Part I training programme, is a little worrying But there is one slight problem here: Demand. In the case of Indonesia, this excellent article in Forbes magazine from economist Jesse Colombo points out that China’s huge […]
Becoming A Chef In Indonesia
An Italian restaurant in Jakarta By John Richardson ELEVEN-year-old Nurafidah spends her mornings at school and her afternoons hunting for recyclable plastic, aluminium and glass in Jakarta’s giant rubbish dump – Bantar Gebang. She wants to grow up to be a chef. “She is not alone. Many children of the dump are sure they […]
Asia Ex-China: The Outlook For 2014 And Beyond
By John Richardson IN a special series of blog posts over the next few weeks we will re-examine the outlook for the major Asian petrochemical producing countries, ex-China. The posts won’t necessarily appear every day, as important news events may require immediate analysis, but our aim is to finish the series by mid-October. Last month, […]
Thailand: Build A Contingency Plan
Source: Petroleum Institute of Thailand By John Richardson IT can be argued that Thailand is in a better state than fellow ASEAN members Indonesia and Malaysia. Government spending in Thailand relative to GDP is said to be lower than in both Indonesia and Malaysia. Compared with Malaysia, Thailand also has a larger working-age population, […]
Malaysia: Taking The Long View
Source: Malaysia Petrochemicals Association By John Richardson THE problems in Malaysia have been evident for a long time. But thanks to the irresponsible and failed actions of the US Fed, the flow of funds into the Southeast country had led to a papering-over of the cracks in its economic growth model. The same, as […]
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