By John Richardson IRAN and China earlier this month signed a wide-ranging economic and security agreement that has been under negotiation for five years. The deal involves $400bn of investment in the overall Iranian economy with as much as $280bn of spending on oil, gas and petrochemicals. Before I crunch the data and demonstrate how […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
US-China Trade Dispute: Pause For Breath Does Not Mean End In Sight
By John Richardson Confused? You might well be if you’ve read the news reports following the US-China trade meeting in Washington last week. The immediate threat of a trade war looks as if it has been averted. China’s top envoy at the trade talks, Liu He, said that both sides had agreed for the time […]
China Emerges As Winner In New Multipolar World
By John Richardson TODAY’S headline should be written on your petrochemicals company boardroom wall, in several inch-high capital letters, and should then be used as the basis for a deep discussion about the consequences of this outcome for your business. You should then build scenarios around how this would change investment strategies and trade flows. […]
Iran Nuclear Decision Further Threat To US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP’S decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, combined with the increasing likelihood of a US-China trade war, risks pushing the US polyethylene (PE) industry out in the cold. The above chart illustrates the US industry’s already difficult position in 2017 compared with ten years earlier. In all three […]
Global Economy Is Less Able To Withstand A New Oil Price Shock
By John Richardson HISTORY has a tendency to move very slowly, inching forward incrementally, and then all of a sudden a flurry of events over an incredibly short space of time can change everything. This is where we are today. Oil prices had been creeping up long before the 4 November launch of the anti-corruption […]
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
Threat To US Polyethylene From President Trump’s Iran Decision
By John Richardson THE geopolitical and economic relationship between China and Iran was already very strong even before Donald Trump decertified the Iranian nuclear deal. Now, though, Iran and China could draw even closer. This could pose a major threat to the US polyethylene (PE) industry as it ramps-up capacity. Here, first of all, is […]
Your Seven-Point Guide To H2 2015 Oil Prices
By John Richardson BEFORE you get carried away with the wholly misguided notion that we have entered into a “new normal” of oil prices in the region of $60-80 a barrel for the rest of this year, see below for a further and updated guide to why this kind of thinking is very, very dangerous. […]