By John Richardson IT IS important to look at long-term trends in China rather than be misled by a few positive sets of data. This is not pessimism, just realism. Yesterday saw the release of very good August export data. Exports were up by 7.2% from year earlier, and were 5.1% higher than in July […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Every Time You Dip Your Toe In The Water…
By John Richardson EVERY time you dip your toe in the water the political temperature in China can feel a little different. For instance, in this article in the New York Times, published on 19 July, the newspaper wrote: “Communist Party cadres have filled meeting halls around China to hear a sombre, secretive warning issued […]
China’s Balancing Act: Reforming Land Rights And Hukou
Xi Jinping By John Richardson THE good health of China’s economy and the future of the Communist Party depend on giving farmers individual land-ownership rights and allowing equal rights for migrants in cities, an official from a leading Beijing-based government think tank told Bloomberg in this article. “Land and hukou reform is the cornerstone […]
China Commodities Rally About Protecting Existing Debt
By John Richardson OVER the last few days we have focused on the increased risk-on trade in commodities, including petrochemicals. But maybe the rallies we have seen in products such as fibre intermediates and polyethylene (PE) are mainly about traders being forced to increase their risk profiles in order to protect existing liquidity. Here is the […]
China’s SMEs Face New Lending Problem
By John Richardson CHINA’S small and medium-sized (SMEs) may already be finding it increasingly difficult to source trade finance as a result of the late June credit crackdown warned Winnie Wu, Hong Kong-based research analyst at Merrill Lynch, who was quoted in this article in The Economist. “A tightening of reckless credit is necessary in […]
China Market Rally In Context
By John Richardson ETHYLENE spot prices rose by $20-50/tonne in Asia last week on the back of stronger derivatives pricing, including a $5-25/tonne increase in polyethylene (PE), according to ICIS. However, nobody is cracking open the champagne. As the chart above shows, despite a $51/tonne improvement in Northeast Asia’s variable cost integrated margins for […]
Get Behind China
By John Richardson THE blog is often accused of being pessimistic. We are not. We are just realistic. It was realistic last November to anticipate that China’s new leaders would be dedicated to major economic reform. In fact, this was clear even earlier than that – back in February 2012 when the World Bank produced […]
Beijing: China Deceleration On Track
Source of chart: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/ By John Richardson THERE has been a hugely important shift in the attitude of China’s central government. In the old days, when they set a target of say 12% national industrial production growth for a particular year, such targets were usually wildly exceeded. This was the result of local governments, […]
China’s Cancer Villages
Source of picture: Wikispaces. By John Richardson CHINA has as many as 400 “cancer villages”, with many of the cancer clusters being blamed on the chemicals industry. Much of the nation’s countryside – the source of China’s food supply – is contaminated with toxic chemicals, it is claimed. Experts estimate that there has been an 80% increase […]
China NPC Meeting: Quality Over Quantity
China’s National People’s Congress Source of picture: Rex Features By John Richardson The focus of next week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting in China – the country’s annual “parliamentary” meeting – is likely to be on the quality rather than the quantity of growth. This is reflected in the fact that almost half of […]
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