Tag Archives | oil prices

Tackling China’s Latest Steel Bubble: Implications For Petrochemicals

Note: A technical fault meant I was unable to update the blog on Wednesday and Friday last week. Business as usual returns this week.

By John Richardson

THE stop, start nature of economic reforms in China, which is the result …

Continue Reading

Oil Prices: Speculation Reaches New High, As Do Risks For Real Economy

By John Richardson

HEDGE funds and other speculators had amassed a record amount of futures contracts of 885m barrels by 31 January, according to the Financial Times. These contracts were equivalent to almost nine days of actual, physical demand. And …

Continue Reading

Another Layer Of Trumponomics Risk: Equities Versus Real Economy

By John Richardson

THE TOP chart shows that global chemicals industry operating rates fell to just 78.3% in November, even though companies up down the industry’s value chain were building inventory ahead of expected New Year price rises.  This was …

Continue Reading

Trump’s Diplomacy And Oil Prices

By John Richardson

WHEN he was a candidate for the presidency of the US, Donald Trump promised to “bomb the hell” out of oilfields controlled by ISIL. He also declared: “I’m good at war in a certain way” and “I …

Continue Reading

India’s Currency Reforms: Potential Lehman Bros Moment

By John Richardson

IN normal global economic, social and geopolitical circumstances, Narendra Modi’s decision to overnight remove 86% of the cash from the Indian economy would have been a major risk. But these are not the normal global circumstances that …

Continue Reading

Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance

By John Richardson

COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC …

Continue Reading

The Future Isn’t What The Dow Jones Is Telling Us

By John Richardson

WHAT for you is the most important chart, the one on the left or the one on the right? If you are a chemicals producer rather than stockmarket investor, I would suggest it is the one on …

Continue Reading

Polyethylene Pricing, Profits In 2017: Three Scenarios

By John Richardson

WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War.

There is, for example, …

Continue Reading

Bricklaying In Australia And Oil Prices: Important Similarities

By John Richardson

THE bricklayer came around to my house three years ago, quickly surveyed the extent of the job, drew a sharp breath, and said, “It’s going to cost you at least Aus$4,000.” And that was after a four-week …

Continue Reading

OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact

By John Richardson

OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, …

Continue Reading