By John Richardson CHINA could raise its ethylene capacity by as much as 71% and its propylene capacity by at least 21%, according to my latest analysis of a major new wave of naphtha, ethane and LPG crackers. The above chart is an update of the chart I first published back in June. In detail: […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China And Aramco IPO: Win, Wins From A Closer Relationship
By John Richardson NO SMOKE without fire? Perhaps, as there more and more reports that China will buy into next year’s Saudi Aramco IPO.. This would further cement already strong economic and geopolitical ties between China and Saudi Arabia. It was Reuters that first reported back in April that China was interested in buying into Aramco […]
China To Drive 55% Of Global Polyethylene Growth In 2007-2017….
.…Major risks ahead from this over-dependence on China By John Richardson FOLLOWING on from my post on Friday, which showed almost exactly the same story for polypropylene (PP), see the above chart detailing the importance to the global polyethylene (PE) business of China’s consumption growth. Over-exposure to China is a greater risk in the […]
China Drives 58% Of Global PP Growth, So What’s Your Plan B?
By John Richardson THIS IS a great example of putting most of your eggs in one basket! Polypropylene (PP) shareholders are entitled to ask what Plan B is if China can no longer deliver as much as 58% of the total growth in global PP demand. This is what ICIS Consulting forecasts will be the […]
China Growth Slows On Collapse In Shadow Bank Financing
By John Richardson YOU should print-off the above chart and stick it on your chemicals company boardroom wall. From fellow blogger Paul Hodges, it shows the collapse in credit issued via China’s shadow banking system. It is the shadow banking system that has driven China’s debt-t0-GDP ratio to as high as 650% – and could […]
Stock Market Threats Far Wider Than Just North Korea
By John Richardson LAST WEEK’S steep fall in global stock markets was of course the result of rising US-North Korea geopolitical tensions. Some $1 trillion was wiped off equity values. We obviously all hope that the geopolitical tensions will ease. But that would still leave behind a bull-run in global equities that has mainly been […]
China PP Market Outlook for H2 And 2018
By John Richardson AS IS the case with polyethylene (PE), China’s polypropylene (PP) market continues to catch up with the underlying realities of demand growth. If you recall, in Q1 of this year PP net imports (imports minus exports) grew by no less than 36% over the same period last year to 1.3m tonnes. The […]
China-led Global Downturn Could Again Happen In September
By John Richardson WHEN the Americans and the Europeans come back from their summer holidays in September it seems quite possible that they will see history repeat itself. It was of course from September 2014 onwards that commodities prices started to decline from their all-time record highs, largely because of a belated understand that credit […]
Failed Pursuit Of Inflation Creates Major Economic Risks
By John Richardson BUILDING UP lots of debt isn’t a problem if it leads to inflation that then inflates-away the value of some of that lending. And debt-induced healthy increases in inflation also show that all of that lending has worked, as these levels of inflation point to snug employment markets and strong wage growth. […]
Crude: Global Deflation Still Threatens $35 A Barrel
By John Richardson HOW you view any set of data depends on where you are standing. A hedge fund manager who has gone long on crude oil might, for example, have been encouraged by this report in the FT last week about shrinking US oil inventories: US crude stockpiles fell by 7.2m barrels in the […]
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