Tag Archives | oil prices

Failed Pursuit Of Inflation Creates Major Economic Risks

By John Richardson

BUILDING UP lots of debt isn’t a problem if it leads to inflation that then inflates-away the value of some of that lending.

And debt-induced healthy increases in inflation also show that all of that lending has …

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Crude: Global Deflation Still Threatens $35 A Barrel

By John Richardson

HOW you view any set of data depends on where you are standing. A hedge fund manager who has gone long on crude oil might, for example, have been encouraged by this report in the FT last …

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China’s PE Imports: Recycling Ban Adds To Uncertainty

By John Richardson

FOR the time being at least, the year-on-year growth in China’s polyethylene (PE) net imports (imports minus exports) has fallen.

In January-May 2017, net imports were up by no less than 19%. However, the January-June increase is …

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China PP Demand Surprises On The Upside, But Oil Threat Remains

By John Richardson

CHINA’S PP market, provided oil prices don’t further collapse, seems to be pretty close to the end of a destocking cycle that stretches back to February of this year, when the post-Lunar New Year traditional surge in …

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US Govt Policy, Weaker China Indicate Further Oil Price Decline

By John Richardson

OIL markets have reached an important tipping point as the bulls and the bears try to exert decisive influence.

There is resistance from the bulls which helps to explains why, after last week’s collapse in oil prices, …

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Tumbling Oil Prices: Implications For Asian Polyethylene

By John Richardson

DON’T say that I didn’t warn you. Oil prices now look much more likely to hit my forecast of $35//bbl, or lower, by Q4. Such is the downward momentum right now in crude markets that it is …

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China PP Market Underlines Return To Global Deflation

By John Richardson

CHINA’S polypropylene (PP) net trade, which is imports minus exports, fell by 31% on a month-on-month basis in April to around 316,000 tonnes. That was to be expected given the 42% surge in net trade in Q1 …

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Why Oil Prices Could Be At $35/bbl Or Lower By Q4

Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC may regret their decison to cut production, as this has led to a resurgence in US shale-oil production – and a further wave of innovation in shale technologies. Combine this with a slowdown …

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China’s Lock-Step Moves On Credit, Pollution Threaten Global Economy

China’s renewed efforts to tackle excessive lending and pollution are closely linked as progress on deflating the 2016 credit bubble will also see progress towards cleaning-up the environment. This will lead to quite a sharp slowdown in GDP growth during …

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China’s Polypropylene Market Reflects Wider Economic Problems

By John Richardson

WHEN traders acquired big volumes of polypropylene (PP) cargoes to export to China at the end of last year for arrival in Q1, they were confident that the country’s domestic market would easily absorb just about every …

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