By John Richardson NECESSITY is the mother of new inventions, and also of innovations that make improvements on old inventions. When, for example, oil and gas prices were sky-high in the US, this prompted the late and great George Mitchell (see right) to persist with research that led to modern hydraulic fracturing techniques. Now we […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why Getting It Wrong Really, Really Matters Today
By John Richardson It is never easy to admit you are wrong because of the loss of “face” (and for me “face” is just as much an issue in the West as it is in Asia. It just presents itself in different forms in different countries and regions). Everyone worries that their standing with their peers […]
Just “Black Swans” That We Can’t Predict? Nonsense
By John Richardson HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events: The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis. China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package. Last year’s collapse in oil prices. China’s economic and environmental about turn. We are also told because these were Black Swans – freak events […]
US Needs A New Normal “Permanent Study Group”
By John Richardson A LOT of the discussions taking place in and around last week’s American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers International Petrochemical Conference (IPC) in San Antonio, Texas, was, of course, around oil prices. Lower crude prices means less of a production cost advantage for the US petrochemicals industry, which is predominantly based on natural […]
Oil Price Chaos: What It Means For The Planning Process
By John Richardson FIRST of all, we were told that $100 a barrel, or thereabouts, was the natural price for oil. And then we were told this after the price collapse: “Not to worry, this is just a temporary supply glut. Output cuts will soon be sufficient to restore the price back to the region […]
US Petchems: Victim Of A Black Swan? What Black Swan?
By John Richardson JIM Gallogly, the former CEO of LyondellBasell, has advised US petrochemicals companies to “think very, very hard” about new investments. “Some of you simply are going to be too late. And you need to recognise where you are at,” he told delegates that this week’s 40th American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers […]
Oil Supply Rising On Efficiency Gains, Govt Policy
By John Richardson FOR most of the time from 2009 until the end of H1 2014, understanding what was going on in petrochemicals markets was pretty easy. The price of oil was stable in the region of $100 a barrel and so upstream costs were very predictable. This meant that you only really had to […]
China’s Polyolefins Recovery On Shaky Ground
By John Richardson CHINA’S polyolefins markets were in a muddle last week as a result of resilient offer prices for imported material versus a fall in pricing for domestic cargoes. Domestic polyethylene (PE) prices were largely softer, but local distributors were unwilling to significantly cut their offer prices for imported because of tight supply across […]
China’s Polyolefins Price Recovery: The Role Of Crude
By John Richardson THE above chart is a useful reminder of the role that crude prices has played in influencing the pricing of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in Asia since January of last year (I have picked just two grades of PE and PP, but the story is similar across the other grades). You […]
The Long Term Average Price Of Oil Is $30 A Barrel
By John Richardson OIL and petrochemicals markets have behaved from mid-February until today as if the world is about to return to the way it was in the first half of last year. Here is the thinking behind this behaviour: What happened from around September 2014 onwards in crude market until mid-February of this year […]
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