By John Richardson THERE is an argument being made that the recent stability in oil prices will continue as crude enters a “New Normal” of $60-70 a barrel. This type of thinking seems to have had an effect on petrochemicals markets – for example, in the key China polyethylene (PE) market. “Our customers in China […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Stand Back And Think: Can This Oil-Price Rally Really Last?
By John Richardson THE talk in oil markets right now is largely about falling US rig counts and how this has resulted in tighter supply. But it is very important to note that this focus on the rig count is a recent phenomenon. “People have only started paying attention to the oil rig count in […]
A Perfect World? If Only It Were So
By John Richardson IN A perfect world everything always turns out for the best in the end. And so quite a few people who argued that high oil prices were good for the global economy, as they said that expensive crude pointed to robust consumption growth well ahead of demand, are now arguing the exact […]
Global Economy: “When Elephants Fight, The Grass Suffers”
HERE are some very disturbing statistics: Over the last five years, US oil and gas companies have issued bonds and taken out loans that are together worth $1.2 trillion, according to data from Dealogic. This has created at least 200,000 jobs in oil and gas companies in the States, according to the US Bureau of […]
Don’t Bet On A Post-Lunar New Year Rebound
By John Richardson THERE is a very risky theory that I have picked up in my conversations with Asian polyolefin industry players over the past few days: Strong underlying demand growth in China, low stock levels held by the country’s plastic converters and a stabilisation of oil prices will result in a firm recovery […]
Oil Prices: Did You Heed All The Warnings?
By John Richardson THE $30 a barrel price of crude at or below which some Asian naphtha cracker operators could be forced to exit the business is an increasing possibility. Here is why: This January’s stockpile of crude in the US is the highest for more than 80 years, said the US-based Energy Information Administration […]
China: Counting The Cost Of Wrong Analysis
By John Richardson VERY few people listened when I warned in November 2013 that China’s economy was about to enter a “New Normal” as a result of the biggest about-turn in economic policy that China had seen for at least 20 years. A few more people took heed of a clear indication in January 2014 that this momentous, world-shaking […]
China Would Be The Only Winner From A Price War
By John Richardson IT IS dangerously wrong to still think of China as just a cheap, copycat low-value manufacturing nation. Yes, cheap, agreed, and to begin with, as was the case with the US, it has copied other countries’ technologies. But forget low value, as China’s extraordinary growth in the smartphones business indicates. Eventually in […]
Asian Polyethylene: Inventory Losses Threaten Survival
By John Richardson HERE are some observations, from several discussions with market participants this week, about what is happening in China’s key polyethylene (PE) market: If the oil price stays at $40-50 a barrel then payment collection from local customers, who kept going into the market to buy resin when they thought the crude market […]
Chemical Sales, Capital Spending In A Weaker Oil-Price World
By John Richardson THE above chart shows the top 23 of the latest ICIS Top 100 ranking of global chemicals companies by sales in US dollars for 2013. When the 2014 numbers have been fully compiled and released later this year, some targets sales growth might well be missed. “We never imagined that the oil […]
Jump to page: