Tag Archives | one-child policy

China: New Catch Phrase Backs Up Old Data

By John Richardson

OLD data doesn’t always go away. What instead sometimes happens is that people slightly adapt their old growth forecasts to suit changing events.

“The rapid growth of China’s service sector and its consumer-led economy” has thus become …

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Asia’s Ageing Populations: Challenges And Opportunities

By John Richardson

EVERYONE should know by now that China faces a demographic crisis that, unless addressed, guarantees much lower GDP growth for many years to come. This explains the urgency of economic reforms designed to escape the “middle income …

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China Polyester: Failure To Ask The Right Questions

By John Richardson

HERE is a historical account of what has gone wrong with China’s polyester industry:…

Apparel and non-apparel manufacturers were first encouraged to back-integrate to polyester fibres production and then to purified terephthalic (PTA) as the central government

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China Still A Long Way From Solving Its Demographic Crisis

SO much for a new demographic dividend, as we warned last November when China announced that it had relaxed its one-child policy.

If you recall, Beijing decided that couples would be allowed to have two children if just one of …

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Europe’s Dinosaur Destiny

By John Richardson

DINOSAURS became extinct, scientists think, because of an event beyond their control – either an asteroid colliding with the earth, volcanic activity, an ice age, disease or gradual climate change.

With all due respect to the former …

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China: One “Blink” And We Are Back To Normal

By John Richardson

Temporary factors might be behind the weakness in China’s polyethylene (PE) market that has been highlighted by our colleagues at ICIS pricing. Last week, pricing in China was either flat or declined on bearish sentiment (see the …

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China: No New “Demographic Dividend”

By John Richardson

ANOTHER, on the surface, stunning announcement last Friday – along with promises of root and branch economic reforms – was China’s decision to relax its one-child policy. All of these announcements followed the conclusion of last week’s …

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The US Needs A Plenum

By John Richardson

CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river …

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China’s Demographics: What Is Your Contingency Plan?

By John Richardson

DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011.

Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals …

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China’s Auto Demand Growth: No Longer As Predictable

By John Richardson

WE used to live in a linear world where GDP growth was nearly always on the increase and there was a very close linkage between the growth in any overall economy and the rise in demand for …

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