During this downturn, razor-like focus on fluctuating netbacks and supply and demand among all the different countries and regions will allow producers to ensure that they don’t make product for markets where there is no demand, while ensuring that they take maximum advantage of many brief periods of stronger demand and pricing.
Asian Chemical Connections
SEA Asia PE market dragged lower by China now container freight rates have fallen.
The decline in container freight rates has opened the SEA PE market to more competition – pulling the region’s spreads closer to the record-low China levels
Asia PP oversupply creates major opportunity for US buyers
By John Richardson and James Ray THE BIG PRICING divergences that you can see in the above chart could very easily continue over the next few months because of any combination of the following reasons: Asia supply remains long because of weaker demand in China and southeast Asia and big increases in Chinese, South Korean […]
China PP demand slowdown accelerates in H1 as freight shortages trap oversupply
By John Richardson THE ABOVE CHART, from the new ICIS Plant Cost Evaluator, underlines the container freight challenges I’ve been highlighting for the Asian petrochemical markets since last year. How the product works is that polypropylene (PP) capacity to the left of the black line, represented by the green shaded area, is capacity that is […]
Southeast polyolefins demand growth could be negative again in 2021
By John Richardson BEFORE the pandemic, GDP growth rates in the developing world were always higher than in developed economies. And because developing economies had much lower levels of petrochemicals consumption than their rich counterparts, it meant that the multiples over GDP were higher than in the rich word, where consumption was pretty much saturated. […]
A deep dive into HDPE and PP: opportunities and challenges for H2 this year and 2022
By John Richardson Executive summary China’s petrochemicals demand boomed in H2 because of the surge in Chinese exports of finished goods that served lockdown needs in developed economies. As lockdowns ease, most of the air has escaped from what was clearly always a bubble. For example, high-density PE (HDPE) demand is set to be 9% […]
Southeast Asia polyolefins demand may fall by as much as during Asian Financial Crisis
By John Richardson HOW do you replace anywhere between 9% and 18% of GDP when it has virtually disappeared overnight and there is little prospect of it coming back during the rest of 2020? This is one of the challenges Thailand faces because of the collapse of tourism. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, […]
Plastics rubbish and the developing world: Lost petrochemicals demand and the new service-led approach
By John Richardson IT WAS billed as a liberating product, something that brought a little luxury to the lives of the very poor. That’s how the single-serve pouch was marketed. But nobody thought enough about the environmental impact of selling single measures of say shampoo in these pouches to people in countries such as India […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]
Philippines cracker – revival of an epic saga
By Malini Hariharan Some projects never die. JG Summit has been planning a cracker since 1995 but has always had problems in securing funding. The project was revived in 2005 even as questions were raised about its viability. It would help JG Summit secure feedstock for its polyethylene and polypropylene plants, but how would it […]