By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
What global petchems demand would have been like without the China property bubble warns us about the future
By John Richardson PLAYING “What if?” games by changing the course of history is popular amongst students of the subject, including myself. Imagine, therefore, in our world of petrochemicals, if China hadn’t decided in late 2008 to launch the world’s biggest-ever economic stimulus package to compensate for the Global Financial Crisis. Beijing felt it had […]
As the drift towards a divided world continues, here are some climate change realities
Note that, as always, the views expressed here are personal. Thank you. By John Richardson Executive Summary The big Western energy companies – the International Oil Companies (IOCs) – are selling hydrocarbon assets as they strive to meet more aggressive emissions targets, some of which have been set by environmental activists. The assets are being […]
China benzene and its derivatives could see negative growth in 2019
By John Richardson NOW let’s put this all together. My LinkedIn post on Tuesday highlighted how spreads between CFR Japan naphtha feedstock costs and CFR Northeast Asian benzene prices have only been below $100/tonne during three periods since 2000. The first of these occasions coincided with the end of the dot […]
China Accelerates Pollution Campaign In 2018: Implications For Chemicals
By John Richardson ON THE surface of things there will be no let up when China’s winter air pollution campaign ends in March, as I predicted would be the case. China is drawing up plans for tougher curbs on smog levels during the two years until 2020, with the details due to be released in […]
Struggling Polyethylene In 2018, Strong Profits Elsewhere
By John Richardson THERE will perhaps be two headline directions for the global chemicals and polymers industries in 2018: I believe that the global polyethylene (PE) market has a very good chance of moving from last year’s peak margins to levels of profitability below what is expected by most companies, investors and analysts. China’s ongoing […]
Dow And Commodities-Specialities Integration
By John Richardson IS diversification itself a problem in commodity chemicals and speciality companies with operations under one roof, or is it more how this diversification is handled? This is a question raised by this excellent Insight article, from the blog’s ICIS colleague Joe Chang, which revisits the issue of hedge fund Third Point’s […]
This Is Not Merely A Rough Patch
By John Richardson IT was interesting to read late last week about how certain chemicals analysts still believe that the big slump in the sector’s share prices might merely be a rough patch, possibly just a correction. In this same excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis, Citi US chemicals analyst PJ Jukevar talks about how […]
China Auto Market Provides Clear Evidence
By John Richardson DESTOCKING is obviously not the main driver of the decline in China’s polyolefins market, despite what a dwindling band of optimists are still arguing. The glaringly transparent reason for the fallacy of the fading belief is a decline in key end-use markets for polyoleifins – and for other polymers and chemicals. Today […]