China’s polymers consumption in 2022 107m tonnes from a population of 1.4bn. The developing world ex-China’s consumption was at 84m tonnes from a population of 5.3bn. And the developed world consumed 82m from 1.1bn people.
Asian Chemical Connections
India, climate change, demographics and polymers demand growth
Climate change and demographics are economic destiny – their effects cannot be avoided. But the petrochemicals industry has a huge role to play in shaping favourable outcomes
China’s long-term GDP growth risks and polymers demand
Cumulative downside demand in the above chart would total 5bn – 91m tonnes lower than our base case.
China chemicals growth and the 20th Communist Party Congress
China’s share of global demand growth in the seven big resins jumped to an astonishing 67% in 2002-2021. Northeast Asia ex-China’s share of demand fell to minus 1% with Europe and North America worth just 4% and 2% of growth respectively. The chemicals world had become dangerously lopsided.
Naphtha markets underline why “Micawberism” is not the answer
The January-September 2022 multiple of BFOE crude prices per barrel over CFR Japan naphtha prices per tonne averaged just 7.9. The lowest multiple so far this year was 6.9 in August. The January-September 2022 average was the lowest annual average since our naphtha price assessments began in March 1990.
China’s dominance of global polymer demand delivered huge global growth. But what now?
China accounted for 33% of global growth in the seven major synthetic resins between 1990 and 2001. But this jumped to 63% in 2002-2021. In distant second place during both these periods was the Asia and Pacific region at 15% and 17% respectively.
China’s ethylene equivalent demand growth in 2022 could be as high as plus 9% or as low as minus 3%
Scenario 1, the ICIS Base Case, for China’s ethylene equivalent demand, sees growth at 9% in 2022 over last year. Scenario 2 involves 4.5% and Scenario 3, minus 3%.
China’s less commodity intensive future requires major petchem strategic rethink
By John Richardson THE THING about the collapse of China is that, like commercially viable nuclear fusion and peak oil, it is always ten years away from happening. In other words, I don’t think it will happen. But as the journalist and author Richard McGregor said in this Dan Snow history podcast on this year’s […]
China pulls multiple policy levers to fix energy shortages but don’t forget secular fall in demand
By John Richardson Executive Summary CHINA’S POWER shortages could fixed by the end of this month or early November, I was told by a senior polyolefins industry source. Three other contacts concurred. My contacts could be wrong, of course. A coal trader quoted by Reuters said that the energy shortages could continue throughout the fourth […]
Whether Beijing blinks over Evergrande is the biggest issue for global petchems
By John Richardson WILL BEIJING blink? The answer to this question could pretty much set the direction of the global petrochemicals industry over the next six to 12 months. In my view, the question over whether the Chinese government will relax its clampdown on local real estate, which Bank of America estimates accounts for 28% […]