Just to once again stress that what follows are as always my personal views, and are open to debate, based on the data. I look forward to the debate and together we can shine more light on critical issues for the chemicals industry By John Richardson SO MUCH, perhaps, for the boost to the broader […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Asian Petchems Profits Could Test Historic Lows In 2018
By John Richardson THE ASIAN steam cracker business has struggled to pass on higher oil prices as the above chart further underlines. As you can see, high-density polyethylene (LLDPE) injection grade spreads including selected co-products have slipped over the last few months. Spreads are a rough but still useful measure of profitability, and so tell […]
US Stock Market Decline Highlights Consumer Spending, Income And Debt Risks
By John Richardson THE SUSTAINABILITY of the US economic recovery rests on the willingness of people who cannot afford to spend money to continue to spend money. In order to explain what I mean, let’s start with income and wealth distribution in the US. A US Federal Reserve study showed that the 90% of US […]
Another Layer Of Trumponomics Risk: Equities Versus Real Economy
By John Richardson THE TOP chart shows that global chemicals industry operating rates fell to just 78.3% in November, even though companies up down the industry’s value chain were building inventory ahead of expected New Year price rises. This was in response to all the excitement generated by expectations of an OPEC-Russia deal to reduce […]
Please Be Careful Out There
By John Richardson Quite often, a chart is worth many thousands of words. The above chart, from Bloomberg, shows the divergence between the soaring S&P 500 index and US macro-economic indicators. The theory is that soaring equity values will be the tide that lifts all boats. Even America’s hard-pressed middle classes will benefit, not just […]
High Frequency Trading dominates as markets crash
by Paul Hodges The Chemicals and the Economy blog was almost alone at the end of April, when it launched the IeC Downturn Alert. Today, its fear that we are close to a global downturn has become mainstream. As the American Chemistry Council report, “fears of another global recession are rising with several noted forecasters […]
Chemicals “Spin” Will Continue
By John Richardson THE reluctance of sell-side chemicals analysts to downgrade their forecasts should be severely tested by the Federal Reserve’s decision to downgrade its outlook for the US economy. US GDP growth will now be only 2.7-2.9% in 2011 compared with the April estimate of 3.1% to 3.3%, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told a […]
Beware of the usual smoke and mirrors
Flying the flag for Q3… Source of picture: etftrends.com Yes, Q3 earnings season is almost upon us with the usual headline-grabbing improvements in carefully selected reported numbers. What this season might tell us about the overall direction of everything is, to start the week on yet another pessimistic note, hardly uplifting. John Authers is once […]
Futures, Recycling Behind China PE Mystery?
Picture: The China Daily “I’ve given up trying to read the polyolefin market in China. I just can’t figure out what’s going on,” said a senior source with a major North American producer late last week. “I keep returning to the fundamentals and cannot understand why prices have risen so steeply since mid-February.” Him and […]
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