Tag Archives | Supercycle

Selling To The Base Of The Pyramid

By John Richardson

As the slide above slows, some four billion of the world’s population earn very low incomes indeed.

It would be tempting to give up trying to sell to these people, as, from a Western chemicals and polymers …

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US Petchems “Double Peak” Theory

Wall Street rounding up investors?

Source of picture: Rex Features

 

In a guest blog post, Joseph Chang, the global editor of our magazine, ICIS Chemical Business, echoes our own concerns that it is getting very frothy out there. The …

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If You Build It They May Not Come

By John Richardson

“You cannot just sit back and expect things to happen the way they have happened in the past, especially in emerging markets.” This insight from a senior Asian-based executive with a global polyethylene (PE) producer highlights the …

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Morgan Stanley Bullish Again

By John Richardson

MORGAN Stanley has once again produced a very bullish forecast for China’s polyethylene (PE) market.

The investment bank was famous for devising the SuperCycle theory in late 2010. It failed to take into account clear signs that 2011 was going …

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When I’m 64

Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? The Beatles asked the right questions back in 1967, when singing ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ on their iconic Sergeant Pepper album.

What would happen to the Western BabyBoomers when they became …

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There Is No Going Back

By John Richardson

“IF we build polymer capacity in India the demand will come,” a very senior industry executive told the blog last year. He amplified this statement by explaining that greater availability of plastics would always stimulate strong demand …

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European Markets Weaken Further

By John Richardson

THE dreadful state of European polyolefin markets became even more evident late last week as prices continued their declines.

Discussions on further reductions in European olefin contract prices were also set to begin today.

High density polyethylene …

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Chemicals And The Removal Of The Punch Bowl

By John Richardson

LUNCH with a chemicals analyst yesterday, during the blog’s latest trip to Singapore, gave an intriguing glimpse into the world of those who invest in the chemicals industry.

“The Morgan Stanely “Supercycle” report (which the blog wrote …

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Overconfidence The Bisk Risk For 2011

 

By John Richardson

OVERCONFIDENCE is perhaps the biggest risk for 2011 as a result of sales volumes that have this year exceeded even the most wildly optimistic forecasts.

The danger is that we have yet to see the worst …

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One more view on the cycle

By Malini Hariharan

The debate on the next petrochemical upcycle is heating up. After confident forecasts of a “supercycle” the blog is increasingly hearing more cautious assessments

Take the recent report from Credit Suisse which stresses that while conditions for …

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