By John Richardson THE STRENGTH of China’s position in the intensifying trade war is further underlined by the above chart. In everything from oil and gas through to petrochemicals and finished goods, China is the world’s biggest market. Minus off China from consumption and many other developing countries, and even entire regions, can sometimes almost […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The world in 2019: Social unrest, populist politics, trade barriers and global recession
By John Richardson I PREDICTED in 2011 that the world would by a decade later be less globalised as a result of new trade barriers erected by populist politicians. Nature abhors a vacuum and so vacuums in nature are quickly filled. The same applies to politics and society. I warned that the failure to address […]
Share buyback boost to US stocks a major danger as recession risks grow
Just to once again stress that what follows are as always my personal views, and are open to debate, based on the data. I look forward to the debate and together we can shine more light on critical issues for the chemicals industry By John Richardson SO MUCH, perhaps, for the boost to the broader […]
G20 trade deal is no deal unless a huge gap can be bridged
By John Richardson I PREDICTED that there could well be warm smiles, handshakes and some kind of trade deal at this weekend’s meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. But I added that the devil would be in the detail. The detail tells us that nothing has been agreed other than what Steve Okun of McLarty […]
G20 meeting: stakes are high for US petchems, manufacturing in general
By John Richardson YOU CAN make an argument that President Trump’s trade policies are good for SMEs that have lost out to China over the last 20 years. But even for some SMEs that source their raw materials from China, the trade war risks causing major damage. Take the example of Colombia Sportswear of Portland, […]
US/China trade war: G20 deal would not solve deep-seated differences
By John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised by warm smiles, firm handshakes and an agreement to freeze the trade war when President Trump and President Xi meet on 30 November. Equally possible is that when the two leaders meet at the G20 Summit in Argentina no deal will be done and the trade war will […]
Polyethylene versus polypropylene: Expect the unexpected
By John Richardson IT IS supposed to be a tale of two polymers with these very different fortunes: Whereas our base case assumes that global polypropylene (PP) operating rates will average a healthy 89% in 2018-2025, we see polyethylene (PE) capacity utilisation at 83%. The higher the operating the stronger the profitability. The PP industry […]
How US Polyethylene Exports To China Could Come To A Halt
By John Richardson THE US has abundant shale gas reserves that have in effect been solidified into new polyethylene (PE) capacity, which is largely for export as this is a cheap way of shipping ethane. If you subscribe to the standard view of how the world’s economy will behave over the next decade, growth will […]
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]