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Asian Chemical Connections

The CEO’s Dilemma

By John Richardson The blog has, in its naivety, for some time been perplexed over why certain chemicals company CEOs portray a relentlessly optimistic picture of developing-markets growth. This is despite all the evidence pointing to increasing uncertainties over how China, India, and other developing economies are going to progress over the next decade. Last […]

China’s Leadership Struggle

By John Richardson IT is still an article of faith among some people in the chemicals industry that all you have to do is concentrate on cost-efficient supply and the demand in developing countries such as China will inevitably continue on an even, upward course. But this week’s extraordinary political events in China further demonstrates […]

China’s Leaders Are Boxed In

By John Richardson IT seems inevitable that petrochemical markets will respond positively to the Chinese government’s decision to reduce bank-reserve requirements by 50 basis points. There will quite likely be a relief rally in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and a recovery in physical prices. But lost demand is […]

China’s Long-term Shift In Inflation

By John Richardson THE odd chemicals trader who has gone long might well seek to talk-up his or her markets by claiming that the slowdown in China’s inflation rate is great news. But nobody interested in anything beyond the sale of the next cargo should read anything too-positive into the decline in consumer inflation in August […]

China And Bouncing Dead Cats

By John Richardson Fifty per cent of the blog (John Richardson) is on leave for the next two weeks. Next week Paul Hodges will be posting on Asian Chemical Connections. Paul runs the ICIS Chemicals & Economy blog.Then from the week starting 22 August my fellow ACC blogger, Malini Hariharan, returns from her leave and […]

The China Inflation Muddle

By John Richardson THE fascinating, but also at the same time frustrating, complexity of the Chinese economy has been thrown into further relief this week in the debate over the implications of the June 6.4% inflation rate. The rate, the highest in close to three years, was seen as especially worrying by some economists because […]

Living In Hope Rather Than Expectation

By John Richardson HOPEFUL theories espoused by traders can sometimes sound a little hollow – as was the case with the one doing the rounds in Asian polyolefin markets late last week. “We think the latest interest rate rise in China will be the last this year and so, in a way, the announcement was good […]

European PE, PP Contracts Likely To Fall

By John Richardson EUROPEAN polyolefin converters seem quite justified in pressurising their suppliers for further price reductions, given weak macro-economic fundamentals and still-excellent profitability at the cracker end of the value chain. The news from China continues to get worse. China’s Vice-Premier Wang Qishan said last week that the government’s 2011 targets for GDP growth and […]

Clinging On To Vain Hopes

By John Richardson ANYONE clinging on to the hope that the weakness in the global polyolefin market is merely down to China going through a prolonged period of destocking could face a rude awakening. China’s polyethylene (PE) demand was down 4% in January-May this year, at 7.1m tonnes, compared with the same period in 2010. […]

The Chemicals Party Is Over

By John Richardson IT has been a fantastic party. Nobody expected that the drinks would last for so long, thanks to Wen Jiabao and Ben Bernanke working overtime to man the 24/7 off-licence (it is called “liquor store” in the States and a “bottle shop” in Australia). But now the market has clearly reached the top with […]

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