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US Economic Rescue Fails On Missing Human Factor

By John Richardson

THE US Federal Reserve thought it understood how the world worked, thanks to its FRB/US (Ferbus) computer model.

“Assuming that the FRB/US model does a good job of capturing the macroeconomic implications of declining house prices, such …

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Oil Market Jigsaw Puzzle: Putting The Pieces Together

By John Richardson

THE data has long told us that the efficiency of the US shale oil process is constantly improving.

For instance, the above chart shows that in just in one shale-oil field in the US – the Bakken …

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Oil Prices, Chemicals Markets Face Steep Declines

By John Richardson

THERE are three things you need to know about today’s global chemicals markets:…

Oil prices are now retreating back to quite probably below $30/bbl, and so of course there will be a chemicals destocking process.
But the

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China’s Gasoline Export Surge Was Entirely Predictable

By John Richardson

WHEN it first became apparent earlier this year that China was aggressively expanding diesel exports, we were told not to worry as this was said to merely reflect the replacement of China’s old economy with its new …

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Oil Prices: Beware Return Of The Financial Bears

By John Richardson

THE above chart shows the extent to which this year’s oil-price rally has been led by futures markets. What is significant, though, is that futures activity seems to have plateaued.

Sure, futures activity could easily go the …

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US Auto Sales: Recovery? What Real Recovery?

By John Richardson

IF you look at last year’s US auto sales in isolation, the plan to transform the fortunes of economically struggling Wilkes County in North Carolina makes every bit of sense. In 2015, 17.5m vehicles were sold in …

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US Water Crisis: Be Part Of The Solution, Not The Problem

By John Richardson

IT SHOULD be pretty obvious to all of us that there is a huge gap in the provision of basic needs in the emerging world. Just look, for example, at the some 2.3bn people who in 2015 …

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The Two Different Chinas: Outcome Remains Uncertain

By John Richardson

THIS year’s “sugar high” was always going to be that exactly that – if you look at the right data. The staggering increase in China’s total credit   in Q1 2016 over the first quarter of last year  …

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Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030″: What It Means

 

Demand: The New Direction for Profit

 

By John Richardson

SAUDI ARABIA’S “Vision 2030”, which was released on Monday, underlines what has been clear from government statements for a long while – that the Kingdom knows it has to …

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Sitting On The Fence Involves Choosing Failure

By John Richardson

IF you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. So the choice today is yours. If you remain on the fence, still unsure about whether the end of the Supercycle is real or not, …

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