Oh no, the Brazilains are coming, and they’re going to inundate the US with 700m gal of ethanol in 2008, according to my pal William Lemos, reporting for ICIS news in Houston.
(Disclosure: I work for ICIS. About ICIS)
The sneaky Brazilians are going to do it by importing via Caribbean countries so the imports will be free of the 54cent/gal tariff that they would attract if they came directly from Sao Paulo. Lets get this in perspective: in 2006, the US used 179 100million gallons of gas in 2005. This will be coming in at the margin, but it is unlikely to destabilise the US corn-based, subsidy-driven ethanol market which produced around 5000 m gallons of ethanol in 2006, any more than the rising price of corn.