Dow integrates upstream via Kuwait deal

Dow has been unique amongst the world’s largest petchem companies in not being integrated upstream into oil and refining. This position will change dramatically at the end of 2008, when its newly-announced JV with the PIC subsidiary of Kuwait Petroleum opens for business.

Not only will Dow then integrate its ethylene/PE business, but it will be do so with a non-western oil company. As Dow’s CEO, Andrew Liveris, describes it, ‘the day of the NOC (National Oil Company) dominance has arrived’. The new JV will be responsible for pursuing ethylene/PE projects on its own, and will be the prime focus for Dow’s Asian ambitions. Some/all of the existing PE-based JVs may also be linked to it in the future. Liveris explained that the aim is ‘to bring each one of those relationships to the table in due course’.

This deal continues Dow’s strategy of JVing its Basics business, whilst growing its technology-led performance businesses. In Basics, the aim is to anchor Dow’s technology and market knowledge with locally sourced advantaged feedstocks. Whilst the Performance businesses focus on 4 key areas – Human health, Energy, Infrastructure & Transportation, Electronics & Communication.

The deal creates a $19.1bn global JV that (if combined in due course with the existing Equate, MEGlobal and Equipolymers JVs) will create the world’s No1 polyolefins company. It will focus on plastics (PE/PP/PC/PET), and will also create the world’s largest EO/EG & derivatives company. It will have supply agreements with 3 of Dow’s crackers at Fort Saskatchewan (Canada), Bahia Blanca (Argentina), Tarragona (Spain). If combined with the existing JVs, it would have $14bn in revenue, and be largely focused on ethylene, with some aromatics involvement via polycarbonate. Dow’s other US/European crackers will remain wholly-owned.

The partners have so far concluded a non-binding MOU. Closure of the deal is expected at the end of 2008, at which point PIC will pay $9.5bn for its share of the businesses that Dow is contributing. This will provide Dow with the flexibility to move forward on the next stage of its push into a more market-facing portfolio.

Dow now plans a ‘more aggressive approach to M&A’. It will certainly have the flexibility to do this, having successfully reduced its ‘debt to total capital ratio’ in recent years from over 50% to today’s low 30%. But any prospective acquisitions will need to be aligned with the market-facing businesses, and to also meet Dow’s DCF, IRR financial metrics, as well as having a short payback period, and adding more value to earnings than a simple share buyback.

For Dow, the deal aims to preserve integration whilst mitigating cyclicality via JVs. Transfer pricing downstream will continue as today, as if they were Dow businesses. And Dow will aim to put the income from the deal ‘to better use’ in new business development. Whilst for PIC, the deal will provide 50% of the businesses that Dow is contributing, and the basis to contribute Kuwait feedstocks (eg crude/gas) to future integrated refinery/petchem projects in China and elsewhere.

Dow’s other potential JVs with Saudi Aramco, Egypt, Libya, Oman and Gazprom are all outside the new JV ‘for the moment’. And its multi-product JVs such as with Saudi Aramco will likely remain separate. Equally, the existing PS JV with CPChem will remain separate, as Dow do not see the PS/ABS area as capable of much growth, by comparison with the other polymers. Dow did however hint that they do have further plans around their existing VCM business with Shintech, but did not elaborate further.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

, , , , , ,

Leave a Reply