Forecasting crude oil prices

I have often wondered how the major investment banks arrive at their forecasts for long-term crude prices. Last night I found out how it is done at the biggest player, Barclays Capital.

Dr Paul Horsnell, Head of Commodities Research, said that when he started in the role in 2003, he began by keeping close to the mainstream with a forecast of $24/bbl. Since then, as the market price has risen, he has simply doubled the previous price, deducted $1/bbl, and this number has become his new long-term forecast.

So from a starting point of $24/bbl, he then moved to a $47/bbl forecast, and is currently forecasting $93/bbl. When he next revises the forecast, he expects it to go to $185/bbl.

The interesting thing was that in a room full of eminent energy economists, as well as many senior oil industry people, nobody took issue with his methodology.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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