Oil futures focus on $50/bbl for December

Futures markets are taking an increasingly gloomy view of oil demand. And over the past 2 weeks, the volume of NYMEX contracts to sell crude at $50/bbl has soared 50-fold. But so far, as the blog expected, physical prices have stabilised at the $70/bbl level in advance of OPEC’s emergency meeting on Friday.

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Current OPEC President, Chakib Khelil, today indicated OPEC will probably cut production, in stages, by between 1 – 2 mbd. This would be a bold move, just before the US elections. But many OPEC governments simply cannot afford further price falls, if they are to balance their budgets, and so they may well decide they have to take the political heat.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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