European auto industry shuts down

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Several European chemical companies have been undertaking surveys of likely near-term demand from the auto sector, and have been kind enough to share their conclusions with the blog.

The results are not encouraging. It appears that every European car producer has announced plans for an extended Christmas shutdown of at least 2 weeks, compared to the usual 1 week. Some will shut for up to a month.

The issue is that European car sales are now starting to collapse, as they did 6 months ago in the US. As recently as July, when US sales were already down c22%, European sales were “only” down 7% versus 2007. But now JD Power say European sales were down 25% in November, a clear sign that a major downturn is underway. And as the blog first noted back in February, this also means increased credit risk for chemical suppliers with OEMs in the auto market.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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