In early October, I forecast that we were about to revisit “the scariest moment of my 30 year chemical career”, adding that:
“The moment the blog has long feared, and warned about, may be about to arrive. It appears that we may be about to revisit 1980, when for some weeks it seemed that demand for many petchem products had simply stopped.”
I also repeated this forecast in an EPCA interview with ICIS radio.
Sadly, the coming results season is likely to demonstrate that my forecast was all too prescient. INEOS have already announced inventory holding losses of €1bn ($1.3bn) in Q4.
As I wrote in October, “If your Board would like to talk about the current situation, and to discuss how to manage it, please contact me. I will be happy to use my experience to try and help.”