The blog believes that the landscape has changed during the current downturn. We came into it on the back of a major boom in consumption, supported by reckless lending and borrowing. This mind-set seems unlikely to return quickly.
Instead, as the period of destocking/restocking comes to an end, we may face a "new reality". This probably involves a paradigm of higher savings, lower consumption, and global GDP growth of perhaps 2.5% rather than the historical 3.5%.
This scenario is more challenging than the consensus view of a quick V-shaped recovery. But if correct, it will also present a number of major opportunities for those companies who recognise that the basis of industry competition has now changed.
I outline some of the key issues in a new article for this week's ICIS Chemical Business. Please click here if you would like to read it. As always, I would welcome your insights on the points discussed.