By coincidence, the blog’s 6-monthly review of global stock markets takes place in March/September, so its review last March took place just as the market rally began. This week is therefore a good time to review developments since then.
Russia has been the the best performer (up 160%) and India up 100%. Brazil, another BRIC country, is in 3rd place (up 85%). But China, the fourth BRIC, is last, with a rise of ‘just’ 40%, behind Japan (up 45%). The US, Germany and UK are up c60%.
The blog maintains its view that this is a typical bear market rally, however, with a further decline to come. And the chart above provides some evidence for its belief. Even after these rallies, all the major markets are still down versus their 2007/8 peak. The best performer remains Brazil, down just 6%.
China and Japan are the worst performers, down 50% and 43% respectively since their peak. Russia is still 39% down, in spite of its recent rally. Then come Germany and the US, down 27%, with India and the UK in 2nd place, down c18%.