Roubini cautions on China growth, highlights India

India.pngProf Nouriel Roubini, one of the few to forecast the current Crisis, is very positive about the opportunities for growth in India over the next 20 years. Speaking in Mumbai, he argued that:

• “While the economies of India and China are not large enough to lead global growth, emerging markets remain ‘bright spots’ compared with the U.S., Europe and Japan, which all face deflationary pressures“.
• “The size of the emerging markets is going to become larger and larger, and it’s going to become greater than the GDP of the United States. It may take 20 to 30 years, depending on relative economic growth, but the process will occur (and) we should get used to it.”
• “China might be facing a greater challenge in maintaining its double-digit growth rate than India“, as stimulus measures are withdrawn.
• “China has been a hare and India a tortoise, but growth is accelerating in India. The positive aspect about India is that its economy is less dependent on exports compared with China.”

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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