The IeC Boom/Gloom Index (blue column) moved up sharply last month, as Western stock markets rallied further on news that the major economies were now officially exiting recession.
Various definitions exist of recession, with most countries referencing 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The USA measures recessions differently, but the head of the official Business Cycle Dating Committee said Friday that it was “pretty clear”, based on the employment figures, that the recession had ended.
Of course, the resumption of economic growth is not always the same as full recovery – as the blog learnt in the major downturns of the early 1980′s and 1990′s. It shares the view of the Governor of the Bank of England, that “its not the growth rates, its the levels that matter here“. On this basis, the earliest date that global GDP might recover in real terms (adjusting for inflation) back to 2008′s $58.93trn level is probably 2011.